Arsenal vs Leeds United prediction
Saturday 10 October 2026, 12:30, Emirates Stadium
Full time: 2-1
Our prediction
The model gives Arsenal a 60% chance of winning, 27% for a draw and 14% for Leeds United. Expected goals: Arsenal 1.6, Leeds United 0.6. Most likely score: 1-0.
ARS60%Draw27%LEE14%
Predictions by market
Match result (1X2)Home60%✓Fair odds 1.67Double chanceHome or draw86%✓Fair odds 1.16Over/Under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.562%✗Fair odds 1.61Over/Under 1.5 goalsOver 1.566%✓Fair odds 1.52Both teams to scoreNo62%✗Fair odds 1.61Correct score1-017%✗Fair odds 6.06Draw no betHome81%✓Fair odds 1.23Asian handicapHome -0.560%✓Fair odds 1.67Odd/Even goalsEven52%✗Fair odds 1.91First team to scoreHome63%✗Fair odds 1.58Win to nilHome42%✗Fair odds 2.40
Goals
| Over 1.5 goals | 66% |
|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18% |
| Both teams score | 38% |
Most likely scores
- 1-016.5%
- 2-013.8%
- 0-011.8%
- 1-111.8%
- 2-18.6%
Recent form
Arsenal
- LBrighton & Hove Albion 3-0 Arsenal
- WSunderland 0-2 Arsenal
- WNapoli 0-1 Arsenal
- WArsenal 2-1 Chelsea
- WAston Villa 0-1 Arsenal
Leeds United
- DLeeds United 0-0 Crystal Palace
- WLeeds United 4-1 Newcastle United
- DBrighton & Hove Albion 1-1 Leeds United
- DLeeds United 1-1 Brentford
- WNottingham Forest 0-1 Leeds United
Head to head
- WLeeds United 0-4 Arsenal
How this prediction was made
This is a statistical forecast, not a guarantee. It comes from a goals model fitted on 7,122 recent results across Europe's top leagues, weighting recent matches more heavily. Picks freeze at kick-off and are graded in our public track record. Read the full methodology.