First team to score predictions

Every match in the next three days, strongest pick first.

Predictions updated 2 Nov, 17:30. Refreshed every hour.

Strongest pick first. Fair odds are 1 divided by the probability: if a bookmaker offers more than this, the model sees value.

Mon 2 Nov, 21:15Primeira Liga

BenficaAlverca

SLB77%Draw15%ALV8%

First team to score: Home75%Fair odds 1.34
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Over 2.567%
Both teams to score: Yes51%

Wed 4 Nov, 21:00Champions League

Slavia PragueArsenal

SLP7%Draw18%ARS75%

First team to score: Away74%Fair odds 1.34
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Over 2.554%
Both teams to score: No60%

Wed 4 Nov, 23:30Brasileirão

FlamengoGrêmio

FLA71%Draw19%GRE10%

First team to score: Home71%Fair odds 1.41
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Over 2.559%
Both teams to score: No51%

Mon 2 Nov, 20:45Serie A

AtalantaParma

ATA59%Draw26%PAR15%

First team to score: Home63%Fair odds 1.59
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Under 2.559%
Both teams to score: No59%

Wed 4 Nov, 21:00Champions League

PSV EindhovenClub Brugge

PSV61%Draw18%BRU21%

First team to score: Home62%Fair odds 1.62
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Over 2.583%
Both teams to score: Yes77%

Tue 3 Nov, 21:00Champions League

BarcelonaAston Villa

BAR60%Draw20%AVL21%

First team to score: Home62%Fair odds 1.62
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Over 2.575%
Both teams to score: Yes71%

Wed 4 Nov, 21:00Champions League

FC PortoNapoli

FCP58%Draw25%NAP17%

First team to score: Home62%Fair odds 1.62
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Under 2.552%
Both teams to score: No52%

Tue 3 Nov, 20:45Championship

Queens Park RangersBurnley

QPR55%Draw23%BUR22%

First team to score: Home59%Fair odds 1.68
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Over 2.561%
Both teams to score: Yes60%

Tue 3 Nov, 21:00Champions League

VillarrealParis Saint-Germain

VIL23%Draw22%PSG55%

First team to score: Away59%Fair odds 1.69
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Over 2.568%
Both teams to score: Yes66%

Wed 4 Nov, 23:30Brasileirão

Athletico-PRVasco da Gama

CAP54%Draw24%VAS22%

First team to score: Home59%Fair odds 1.70
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Over 2.560%
Both teams to score: Yes60%

Mon 2 Nov, 21:00La Liga

DeportivoOsasuna

DEP51%Draw26%OSA22%

First team to score: Home57%Fair odds 1.75
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Under 2.551%
Both teams to score: Yes52%

Wed 4 Nov, 21:00Champions League

Borussia DortmundReal Betis

DOR50%Draw26%BET24%

First team to score: Home56%Fair odds 1.78
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Over 2.553%
Both teams to score: Yes56%

Tue 3 Nov, 01:15Liga Profesional

Independiente RivadaviaBanfield

RIV50%Draw25%BAN25%

First team to score: Home56%Fair odds 1.79
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Over 2.556%
Both teams to score: Yes58%

Tue 3 Nov, 21:00Champions League

Bodo/GlimtLille

BODO49%Draw26%LILL25%

First team to score: Home56%Fair odds 1.80
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Over 2.554%
Both teams to score: Yes57%

Tue 3 Nov, 18:45Champions League

GalatasarayVfB Stuttgart

GAL49%Draw22%VFB28%

First team to score: Home55%Fair odds 1.81
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Over 2.571%
Both teams to score: Yes70%

Mon 2 Nov, 21:00Premier League

Newcastle UnitedEverton

NEW48%Draw26%EVE26%

First team to score: Home55%Fair odds 1.83
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Over 2.552%
Both teams to score: Yes56%

Wed 4 Nov, 01:30Brasileirão

InternacionalCoritiba

INT48%Draw27%CFC25%

First team to score: Home55%Fair odds 1.83
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Under 2.551%
Both teams to score: Yes53%

Wed 4 Nov, 21:00Champions League

RB LeipzigManchester City

RBL29%Draw23%MNC48%

First team to score: Away55%Fair odds 1.83
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Over 2.567%
Both teams to score: Yes68%

Tue 3 Nov, 20:45Championship

Preston North EndSheffield United

PNE26%Draw26%SHU48%

First team to score: Away54%Fair odds 1.84
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Over 2.553%
Both teams to score: Yes56%

Mon 2 Nov, 18:30Serie A

SassuoloFiorentina

SAS47%Draw25%FIO28%

First team to score: Home54%Fair odds 1.85
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Over 2.558%
Both teams to score: Yes60%

Tue 3 Nov, 23:30Brasileirão

ChapecoenseMirassol

CHA27%Draw27%MIR47%

First team to score: Away54%Fair odds 1.85
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Over 2.553%
Both teams to score: Yes56%

Wed 4 Nov, 20:45Championship

Cardiff CityWest Ham United

CAR30%Draw23%WHU46%

First team to score: Away53%Fair odds 1.87
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Over 2.568%
Both teams to score: Yes68%

Mon 2 Nov, 23:00Liga Profesional

PlatenseCentral Córdoba (Santiago del Estero)

PLA47%Draw30%CTR24%

First team to score: Home53%Fair odds 1.87
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Under 2.561%
Both teams to score: No55%

Mon 2 Nov, 20:45Ligue 1

LorientBrest

LOR46%Draw28%BRE25%

First team to score: Home53%Fair odds 1.88
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Under 2.555%
Both teams to score: Yes50%

Tue 3 Nov, 21:00Champions League

Atlético MadridBayern Munich

ATM31%Draw23%MUN46%

First team to score: Away53%Fair odds 1.88
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Over 2.571%
Both teams to score: Yes71%

Thu 5 Nov, 16:10Saudi Pro League

AbhaAl Shabab

ABH26%Draw29%SHA46%

First team to score: Away53%Fair odds 1.89
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Under 2.556%
Both teams to score: No50%

Tue 3 Nov, 21:00Championship

Birmingham CityMillwall

BIR45%Draw28%MIL28%

First team to score: Home52%Fair odds 1.91
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Under 2.551%
Both teams to score: Yes54%

Tue 3 Nov, 21:00Championship

West Bromwich AlbionSouthampton

WBA27%Draw28%SOU45%

First team to score: Away52%Fair odds 1.91
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Under 2.553%
Both teams to score: Yes52%

Wed 4 Nov, 21:00Champions League

LensComo

RCL29%Draw26%COMO44%

First team to score: Away52%Fair odds 1.91
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Over 2.555%
Both teams to score: Yes58%

Wed 4 Nov, 20:45Championship

WrexhamMiddlesbrough

WXM30%Draw26%MID44%

First team to score: Away52%Fair odds 1.92
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Over 2.558%
Both teams to score: Yes61%

Mon 2 Nov, 21:15Primeira Liga

Gil VicenteVitória de Guimaraes

GVFC44%Draw31%VSC25%

First team to score: Home52%Fair odds 1.94
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Under 2.563%
Both teams to score: No56%

Mon 2 Nov, 23:00Liga Profesional

Defensa y JusticiaIndependiente

DYJ44%Draw29%IND27%

First team to score: Home51%Fair odds 1.95
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Under 2.557%
Both teams to score: No51%

Thu 5 Nov, 01:30Brasileirão

São PauloCorinthians

SAO43%Draw30%COR28%

First team to score: Home50%Fair odds 1.98
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Under 2.559%
Both teams to score: No53%

Wed 4 Nov, 18:45Champions League

FenerbahceLiverpool

FEN35%Draw24%LIV41%

First team to score: Away50%Fair odds 1.99
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Over 2.566%
Both teams to score: Yes67%

Tue 3 Nov, 21:00Champions League

Manchester UnitedAS Roma

MAN34%Draw25%ROMA41%

First team to score: Away50%Fair odds 2.01
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Over 2.562%
Both teams to score: Yes64%

Thu 5 Nov, 14:25Saudi Pro League

Al KholoodAl Khaleej

KHO40%Draw25%KHA35%

First team to score: Home50%Fair odds 2.02
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Over 2.563%
Both teams to score: Yes66%

Tue 3 Nov, 21:00Champions League

Feyenoord RotterdamInternazionale

FEY40%Draw23%INT37%

First team to score: Home49%Fair odds 2.03
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Over 2.571%
Both teams to score: Yes71%

Tue 3 Nov, 20:45Championship

WatfordLincoln City

WAT40%Draw28%LCN32%

First team to score: Home49%Fair odds 2.04
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Over 2.550%
Both teams to score: Yes55%

Wed 4 Nov, 16:30Europa League

Stade RennaisOlympiacos

REN40%Draw27%OLY33%

First team to score: Home49%Fair odds 2.05
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Over 2.552%
Both teams to score: Yes57%

Tue 3 Nov, 01:15Liga Profesional

Atlético TucumánArgentinos Juniors

CAT26%Draw33%ARGJ41%

First team to score: Away49%Fair odds 2.06
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Under 2.569%
Both teams to score: No61%

Tue 3 Nov, 00:00Brasileirão

Red Bull BragantinoSantos

BRA39%Draw28%SAN33%

First team to score: Home48%Fair odds 2.08
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Under 2.551%
Both teams to score: Yes55%

Tue 3 Nov, 20:45Championship

Derby CountyNorwich City

DER36%Draw26%NOR38%

First team to score: Away48%Fair odds 2.08
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Over 2.558%
Both teams to score: Yes61%

Tue 3 Nov, 20:45Championship

Blackburn RoversStoke City

BLK39%Draw30%STK31%

First team to score: Home48%Fair odds 2.09
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Under 2.558%
Both teams to score: No51%

Thu 5 Nov, 01:30Brasileirão

BotafogoAtlético-MG

BOT33%Draw28%CAM38%

First team to score: Away48%Fair odds 2.10
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Under 2.552%
Both teams to score: Yes54%

Tue 3 Nov, 20:45Championship

Charlton AthleticBolton Wanderers

CHA38%Draw28%BOL34%

First team to score: Home48%Fair odds 2.10
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Over 2.551%
Both teams to score: Yes56%

Wed 4 Nov, 21:00Championship

Bristol CityWolverhampton Wanderers

BRC37%Draw30%WOL33%

First team to score: Home46%Fair odds 2.17
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Under 2.557%
Both teams to score: No51%

Tue 3 Nov, 20:45Championship

PortsmouthSwansea City

POR35%Draw30%SWA35%

First team to score: Away45%Fair odds 2.23
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Under 2.557%
Both teams to score: No51%

Mon 2 Nov, 18:00Süper Lig

GenclerbirligiAlanyaspor

GEN34%Draw31%ALA35%

First team to score: Away45%Fair odds 2.23
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Under 2.562%
Both teams to score: No54%

About this market

This bet is settled on which team scores the opening goal, whatever happens after. Our model treats each team’s goals as arriving at its own expected rate, so the side with more expected goals is more likely to score first. “No goal” wins only if the match ends 0-0. Own goals count for the team that benefits.

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Frequently asked questions

What if the match ends 0-0?

Bets on either team lose and the "no goal" option wins.

Does the first goal decide the result?

Often, but not always. The team that scores first wins a large share of matches, which is why this market tracks the 1X2 favourite closely.