Primeira Liga predictions

Every Primeira Liga fixture in the next seven days, with the model's probabilities for the result, goals and the most likely score.

Predictions updated 1 Nov, 15:28. Refreshed every hour.


Today, Sunday 1 November

FCA55%Draw25%CDN20%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over 2.551%
Both teams to score
Yes52%
Correct score
1-112%
MAR25%Draw27%CDSC47%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Under 2.552%
Both teams to score
Yes52%
Correct score
1-113%
SCB44%Draw29%FCF27%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Under 2.556%
Both teams to score
No50%
Correct score
1-114%

Tomorrow, Monday 2 November

SLB77%Draw15%ALV8%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over 2.567%
Both teams to score
Yes51%
Correct score
2-011%

Friday 6 November

FCF45%Draw29%FCA26%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Under 2.555%
Both teams to score
Yes50%
Correct score
1-114%

Saturday 7 November

ALV56%Draw26%CPAC17%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Under 2.557%
Both teams to score
No55%
Correct score
1-014%
SCP77%Draw15%MFC8%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over 2.567%
Both teams to score
Yes51%
Correct score
2-011%

Primeira Liga through the model’s eyes

Portugal’s Primeira Liga is dominated by a small group of clubs that win most of their domestic games comfortably, while the rest of the league is low on goals and hard to separate. For predictions that means two very different kinds of match: heavy favourites where draw no bet and home win are strong, and tight games where under 2.5 is often the likelier call.

Recent Primeira Liga results and how our picks did

Sun 25 Oct, FTBacktest
Sporting CP1Académico de Viseu2
SCP68%Draw20%ACV13%
Match result (1X2)
Home68%✗
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over 2.562%✓
Both teams to score
Yes54%✓
Sun 25 Oct, FTBacktest
Rio Ave0FC Famalicao4
RAFC25%Draw28%FCF46%
Match result (1X2)
Away46%✓
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Under 2.555%✗
Both teams to score
No50%✓
Sun 25 Oct, FTBacktest
C.D. Nacional1Braga0
CDN22%Draw26%SCB52%
Match result (1X2)
Away52%✗
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over 2.551%✗
Both teams to score
Yes54%✗
Sun 25 Oct, FTBacktest
Estoril1Moreirense3
EPF46%Draw28%MFC26%
Match result (1X2)
Home46%✗
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Under 2.552%✗
Both teams to score
Yes53%✓
Sat 24 Oct, FTBacktest
Gil Vicente0FC Porto1
GVFC21%Draw29%FCP50%
Match result (1X2)
Away50%✓
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Under 2.561%✓
Both teams to score
No56%✓
Sat 24 Oct, FTBacktest
Alverca0Arouca1
ALV39%Draw27%FCA33%
Match result (1X2)
Home39%✗
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over 2.552%✗
Both teams to score
Yes57%✗
Sat 24 Oct, FTBacktest
Estrela0Casa Pia2
EST60%Draw23%CPAC17%
Match result (1X2)
Home60%✗
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over 2.555%✗
Both teams to score
Yes53%✗
Fri 23 Oct, FTBacktest
Vitória de Guimaraes5Maritimo0
VSC41%Draw29%MAR30%
Match result (1X2)
Home41%✓
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Under 2.555%✗
Both teams to score
Yes51%✗

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Frequently asked questions

When are Primeira Liga predictions published?

As soon as a fixture is scheduled, up to a week ahead. They refresh every hour and freeze at kick-off.

Are favourites reliable in the Primeira Liga?

The top clubs win a high share of games against the rest, so the model often rates them well above 65% to win. Away trips to mid-table sides are where upsets happen.

Which markets suit Portuguese matches?

Draw no bet on clear favourites, and under 2.5 in matches between mid-table sides.