Europa League predictions

Every Europa League fixture in the next seven days, with the model's probabilities for the result, goals and the most likely score.

Predictions updated 1 Nov, 15:28. Refreshed every hour.


Wednesday 4 November

REN39%Draw27%OLY33%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over 2.552%
Both teams to score
Yes57%
Correct score
1-113%

Thursday 5 November

MIL46%Draw26%FER29%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over 2.558%
Both teams to score
Yes60%
Correct score
1-112%
RSO45%Draw24%LYON31%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over 2.565%
Both teams to score
Yes67%
Correct score
1-110%
AZ35%Draw29%JUV36%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Under 2.552%
Both teams to score
Yes53%
Correct score
1-114%
CEL44%Draw24%BES32%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over 2.567%
Both teams to score
Yes68%
Correct score
1-110%
SUN53%Draw26%DZG21%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Under 2.550%
Both teams to score
Yes52%
Correct score
1-112%

9 matches not shown: at least one team in each has too few recent results in the leagues we cover for a reliable prediction.

Europa League through the model’s eyes

The Europa League mixes clubs from twenty-plus countries, and many of them have only a handful of matches against comparable opposition. That makes it the most uncertain competition we cover, so the model is deliberately cautious here: ratings for teams with little data are pulled towards average, and bankers are only picked when both sides have a solid record behind them.

Recent Europa League results and how our picks did

Thu 22 Oct, FTBacktest
Viktoria Plzen1Levski Sofia2
PLZ42%Draw32%LEV26%
Match result (1X2)
Home42%✗
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Under 2.566%✗
Both teams to score
No59%✗
Thu 22 Oct, FTBacktest
TSG Hoffenheim3Lyon0
TSG31%Draw24%LYON45%
Match result (1X2)
Away45%✗
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over 2.565%✓
Both teams to score
Yes67%✗
Thu 22 Oct, FTBacktest
Omonia Nicosia1Benfica4
OMON31%Draw28%SLB41%
Match result (1X2)
Away41%✓
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over 2.551%✓
Both teams to score
Yes56%✓
Thu 22 Oct, FTBacktest
Olympiacos1Sparta Prague0
OLY43%Draw29%SPP28%
Match result (1X2)
Home43%✓
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Under 2.554%✓
Both teams to score
Yes51%✗
Thu 22 Oct, FTBacktest
NK Celje2RB Salzburg2
NKC36%Draw28%SLZ36%
Match result (1X2)
Home36%✗
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Under 2.551%✗
Both teams to score
Yes55%✓
Thu 22 Oct, FTBacktest
Lillestrom0Real Sociedad6
LSK38%Draw25%RSO37%
Match result (1X2)
Home38%✗
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over 2.562%✓
Both teams to score
Yes64%✗
Thu 22 Oct, FTBacktest
Celtic1Celta Vigo2
CEL52%Draw25%CEL23%
Match result (1X2)
Home52%✗
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over 2.555%✓
Both teams to score
Yes57%✓
Thu 22 Oct, FTBacktest
Besiktas2Crystal Palace2
BES59%Draw22%CRY20%
Match result (1X2)
Home59%✗
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over 2.566%✓
Both teams to score
Yes63%✓
Thu 22 Oct, FTBacktest
AFC Bournemouth3AC Milan0
BOU42%Draw28%MIL30%
Match result (1X2)
Home42%✓
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over 2.550%✓
Both teams to score
Yes55%✗
Thu 22 Oct, FTBacktest
Union St.-Gilloise4Hapoel Be'er0
USG51%Draw29%HBE21%
Match result (1X2)
Home51%✓
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Under 2.559%✗
Both teams to score
No55%✓
Thu 22 Oct, FTBacktest
SK Sturm Graz1Marseille0
STG25%Draw29%OLM45%
Match result (1X2)
Away45%✗
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Under 2.558%✓
Both teams to score
No53%✓
Thu 22 Oct, FTBacktest
OFI Crete0Bayer Leverkusen2
OFI31%Draw27%B0442%
Match result (1X2)
Away42%✓
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over 2.552%✗
Both teams to score
Yes56%✗
Thu 22 Oct, FTBacktest
Lech Poznan1Sunderland1
LECH17%Draw24%SUN59%
Match result (1X2)
Away59%✗
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over 2.551%✗
Both teams to score
Yes51%✓
Thu 22 Oct, FTBacktest
Juventus2Stade Rennais2
JUV55%Draw23%REN22%
Match result (1X2)
Home55%✗
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over 2.564%✓
Both teams to score
Yes63%✓
Thu 22 Oct, FTBacktest
Ferencvaros4Torreense1
FER54%Draw24%TOR23%
Match result (1X2)
Home54%✓
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over 2.562%✓
Both teams to score
Yes61%✓
Thu 22 Oct, FTBacktest
Dinamo Zagreb2NEC Nijmegen4
DZG42%Draw26%NEC32%
Match result (1X2)
Home42%✗
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over 2.556%✓
Both teams to score
Yes60%✓
Thu 22 Oct, FTBacktest
Ararat-Armenia0AZ Alkmaar4
ARA24%Draw23%AZ52%
Match result (1X2)
Away52%✓
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over 2.564%✓
Both teams to score
Yes63%✗

Other leagues


Frequently asked questions

When are Europa League predictions published?

As soon as a fixture is scheduled, up to a week ahead. They refresh every hour and freeze at kick-off.

Why are Europa League picks less confident?

Many teams come from leagues we have little data on, so the model shrinks their ratings towards average rather than guessing.

Do you cover the Conference League?

Not yet.