Track record

Every pick is frozen at kick-off and graded automatically against the final score. Wins and losses both count.

Live picks, last 30 days

The first live picks are graded after this weekend's matches. Until then, the backtest below shows how the same model did on recent weeks.

Backtest, last 10 weeks

Each week was predicted using only matches played before it, exactly as the live model works. Backtests are labelled and never mixed into the live numbers.

Market	Picks	Won	Hit rate	Model expected
Match result (1X2)	1348	669	50%	49%
Double chance	1348	1026	76%	77%
Over/Under 2.5 goals	1348	772	57%	60%
Over/Under 1.5 goals	1348	1068	79%	77%
Both teams to score	1348	770	57%	58%
Correct score	1348	159	12%	12%
Draw no bet	1004	668	67%	66%
Asian handicap	1348	908	67%	65%
Odd/Even goals	1348	644	48%	52%
First team to score	1348	776	58%	55%
Win to nil	1348	326	24%	26%

How to read this

Hit rate is the share of picks that won. Model expected is the average probability the model gave those picks. If the two are close, the model is well calibrated: when it says 65%, it lands about 65% of the time. That is what you want from a prediction model, more than a high hit rate on its own.

Draw no bet picks that end in a draw are void and not counted. Matches decided after extra time are settled on the score at 90 minutes when it is available, and void otherwise.

Latest graded picks

Mon 26 Oct, FTLiga MXBacktest

ATS48%Draw30%PUE22%

Match result (1X2): Home48%✓
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Under 2.561%✗
Both teams to score: No56%✗

Sun 25 Oct, FTLiga ProfesionalBacktest

River Plate1Racing Club0

RIV52%Draw28%RAC21%

Match result (1X2): Home52%✓
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Under 2.557%✓
Both teams to score: No53%✓

Sun 25 Oct, FTPrimeira LigaBacktest

Sporting CP1Académico de Viseu2

SCP68%Draw20%ACV13%

Match result (1X2): Home68%✗
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Over 2.562%✓
Both teams to score: Yes54%✓

Sun 25 Oct, FTLiga ProfesionalBacktest

Independiente0Boca Juniors1

IND27%Draw29%CABJ44%

Match result (1X2): Away44%✓
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Under 2.554%✓
Both teams to score: Yes51%✗

Sun 25 Oct, FTLa LigaBacktest

Barcelona1Real Madrid2

BAR56%Draw20%RMA24%

Match result (1X2): Home56%✗
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Over 2.576%✓
Both teams to score: Yes72%✓

Sun 25 Oct, FTSerie ABacktest

Udinese0AC Milan2

UDI25%Draw27%MIL47%

Match result (1X2): Away47%✓
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Under 2.550%✓
Both teams to score: Yes54%✗

Sun 25 Oct, FTEredivisieBacktest

AZ Alkmaar0FC Twente2

AZ39%Draw28%TWE34%

Match result (1X2): Home39%✗
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Over 2.551%✗
Both teams to score: Yes56%✗

Sun 25 Oct, FTPrimeira LigaBacktest

Rio Ave0FC Famalicao4

RAFC25%Draw28%FCF46%

Match result (1X2): Away46%✓
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Under 2.555%✗
Both teams to score: No50%✓

Sun 25 Oct, FTPrimeira LigaBacktest

C.D. Nacional1Braga0

CDN22%Draw26%SCB52%

Match result (1X2): Away52%✗
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Over 2.551%✗
Both teams to score: Yes54%✗

Sun 25 Oct, FTLiga ProfesionalBacktest

Aldosivi1Belgrano (Córdoba)0

ALDO21%Draw32%BEL47%

Match result (1X2): Away47%✗
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Under 2.568%✓
Both teams to score: No62%✓

Sun 25 Oct, FTLa LigaBacktest

Real Sociedad2Levante1

RSO53%Draw22%LEV25%

Match result (1X2): Home53%✓
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Over 2.571%✓
Both teams to score: Yes69%✓

Sun 25 Oct, FTSerie ABacktest

Lecce0Juventus2

LEC21%Draw27%JUV52%

Match result (1X2): Away52%✓
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Under 2.555%✓
Both teams to score: No52%✓

Sun 25 Oct, FTBundesligaBacktest

SC Freiburg1Bayern Munich3

SCF20%Draw19%MUN62%

Match result (1X2): Away62%✓
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Over 2.577%✓
Both teams to score: Yes72%✓

Sun 25 Oct, FTPremier LeagueBacktest

Sunderland0Leeds United0

SUN32%Draw31%LEE38%

Match result (1X2): Away38%✗
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Under 2.560%✓
Both teams to score: No53%✓

Sun 25 Oct, FTLigue 1Backtest

Toulouse0Troyes0

TOU71%Draw18%TRY11%

Match result (1X2): Home71%✗
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Over 2.563%✗
Both teams to score: Yes53%✗

Sun 25 Oct, FTLigue 1Backtest

Stade Rennais3Strasbourg0

REN51%Draw21%STR27%

Match result (1X2): Home51%✓
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Over 2.575%✓
Both teams to score: Yes73%✗

Sun 25 Oct, FTLigue 1Backtest

Marseille4Le Havre AC3

OLM57%Draw25%HAC17%

Match result (1X2): Home57%✓
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Under 2.552%✗
Both teams to score: No51%✗

Sun 25 Oct, FTLigue 1Backtest

Angers0Lorient0

ANG25%Draw29%LOR46%

Match result (1X2): Away46%✗
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Under 2.558%✓
Both teams to score: No52%✓

Sun 25 Oct, FTLigue 1Backtest

AJ Auxerre1Le Mans1

AUX46%Draw25%MNS29%

Match result (1X2): Home46%✗
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Over 2.562%✗
Both teams to score: Yes64%✓

Sun 25 Oct, FTSüper LigBacktest

Goztepe2Çorum FK0

GOZ38%Draw23%COR39%

Match result (1X2): Away39%✗
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Over 2.572%✗
Both teams to score: Yes72%✗

Sun 25 Oct, FTEredivisieBacktest

Sparta Rotterdam1Ajax Amsterdam2

SPA20%Draw21%AJA58%

Match result (1X2): Away58%✓
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Over 2.568%✓
Both teams to score: Yes65%✓

Sun 25 Oct, FTPrimeira LigaBacktest

Estoril1Moreirense3

EPF46%Draw28%MFC26%

Match result (1X2): Home46%✗
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Under 2.552%✗
Both teams to score: Yes53%✓

Sun 25 Oct, FTLa LigaBacktest

Celta Vigo0Real Betis0

CEL37%Draw27%BET36%

Match result (1X2): Home37%✗
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Over 2.552%✗
Both teams to score: Yes57%✗

Sun 25 Oct, FTBundesligaBacktest

TSG Hoffenheim3Bayer Leverkusen0

TSG27%Draw22%B0451%

Match result (1X2): Away51%✗
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Over 2.571%✓
Both teams to score: Yes70%✗