Win to nil predictions

Every match in the next three days, strongest pick first.

Predictions updated 2 Nov, 17:30. Refreshed every hour.

Strongest pick first. Fair odds are 1 divided by the probability: if a bookmaker offers more than this, the model sees value.

Wed 4 Nov, 21:00Champions League

Slavia PragueArsenal

SLP7%Draw18%ARS75%

Win to nil: Away50%Fair odds 2.01
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Over 2.554%
Both teams to score: No60%

Mon 2 Nov, 21:15Primeira Liga

BenficaAlverca

SLB77%Draw15%ALV8%

Win to nil: Home42%Fair odds 2.36
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Over 2.567%
Both teams to score: Yes51%

Wed 4 Nov, 23:30Brasileirão

FlamengoGrêmio

FLA71%Draw19%GRE10%

Win to nil: Home41%Fair odds 2.43
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Over 2.559%
Both teams to score: No51%

Mon 2 Nov, 20:45Serie A

AtalantaParma

ATA59%Draw26%PAR15%

Win to nil: Home40%Fair odds 2.52
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Under 2.559%
Both teams to score: No59%

Wed 4 Nov, 21:00Champions League

FC PortoNapoli

FCP58%Draw25%NAP17%

Win to nil: Home34%Fair odds 2.92
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Under 2.552%
Both teams to score: No52%

Mon 2 Nov, 23:00Liga Profesional

PlatenseCentral Córdoba (Santiago del Estero)

PLA47%Draw30%CTR24%

Win to nil: Home30%Fair odds 3.39
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Under 2.561%
Both teams to score: No55%

Mon 2 Nov, 21:00La Liga

DeportivoOsasuna

DEP51%Draw26%OSA22%

Win to nil: Home29%Fair odds 3.51
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Under 2.551%
Both teams to score: Yes52%

Mon 2 Nov, 21:15Primeira Liga

Gil VicenteVitória de Guimaraes

GVFC44%Draw31%VSC25%

Win to nil: Home29%Fair odds 3.51
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Under 2.563%
Both teams to score: No56%

Tue 3 Nov, 01:15Liga Profesional

Atlético TucumánArgentinos Juniors

CAT26%Draw33%ARGJ41%

Win to nil: Away28%Fair odds 3.53
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Under 2.569%
Both teams to score: No61%

Mon 2 Nov, 20:45Ligue 1

LorientBrest

LOR46%Draw28%BRE25%

Win to nil: Home27%Fair odds 3.76
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Under 2.555%
Both teams to score: Yes50%

Thu 5 Nov, 16:10Saudi Pro League

AbhaAl Shabab

ABH26%Draw29%SHA46%

Win to nil: Away26%Fair odds 3.78
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Under 2.556%
Both teams to score: No50%

Wed 4 Nov, 01:30Brasileirão

InternacionalCoritiba

INT48%Draw27%CFC25%

Win to nil: Home26%Fair odds 3.83
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Under 2.551%
Both teams to score: Yes53%

Wed 4 Nov, 21:00Champions League

Borussia DortmundReal Betis

DOR50%Draw26%BET24%

Win to nil: Home26%Fair odds 3.84
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Over 2.553%
Both teams to score: Yes56%

Tue 3 Nov, 20:45Championship

Queens Park RangersBurnley

QPR55%Draw23%BUR22%

Win to nil: Home26%Fair odds 3.87
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Over 2.561%
Both teams to score: Yes60%

Thu 5 Nov, 01:30Brasileirão

São PauloCorinthians

SAO43%Draw30%COR28%

Win to nil: Home26%Fair odds 3.90
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Under 2.559%
Both teams to score: No53%

Wed 4 Nov, 23:30Brasileirão

Athletico-PRVasco da Gama

CAP54%Draw24%VAS22%

Win to nil: Home25%Fair odds 3.92
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Over 2.560%
Both teams to score: Yes60%

Mon 2 Nov, 23:00Liga Profesional

Defensa y JusticiaIndependiente

DYJ44%Draw29%IND27%

Win to nil: Home25%Fair odds 3.93
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Under 2.557%
Both teams to score: No51%

Tue 3 Nov, 21:00Champions League

Bodo/GlimtLille

BODO49%Draw26%LILL25%

Win to nil: Home25%Fair odds 4.00
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Over 2.554%
Both teams to score: Yes57%

Mon 2 Nov, 21:00Premier League

Newcastle UnitedEverton

NEW48%Draw26%EVE26%

Win to nil: Home25%Fair odds 4.03
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Over 2.552%
Both teams to score: Yes56%

Tue 3 Nov, 21:00Championship

West Bromwich AlbionSouthampton

WBA27%Draw28%SOU45%

Win to nil: Away25%Fair odds 4.04
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Under 2.553%
Both teams to score: Yes52%

Tue 3 Nov, 01:15Liga Profesional

Independiente RivadaviaBanfield

RIV50%Draw25%BAN25%

Win to nil: Home25%Fair odds 4.05
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Over 2.556%
Both teams to score: Yes58%

Tue 3 Nov, 20:45Championship

Preston North EndSheffield United

PNE26%Draw26%SHU48%

Win to nil: Away24%Fair odds 4.09
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Over 2.553%
Both teams to score: Yes56%

Tue 3 Nov, 21:00Championship

Birmingham CityMillwall

BIR45%Draw28%MIL28%

Win to nil: Home24%Fair odds 4.15
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Under 2.551%
Both teams to score: Yes54%

Tue 3 Nov, 23:30Brasileirão

ChapecoenseMirassol

CHA27%Draw27%MIR47%

Win to nil: Away24%Fair odds 4.17
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Over 2.553%
Both teams to score: Yes56%

Tue 3 Nov, 20:45Championship

Blackburn RoversStoke City

BLK39%Draw30%STK31%

Win to nil: Home23%Fair odds 4.39
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Under 2.558%
Both teams to score: No51%

Tue 3 Nov, 21:00Champions League

VillarrealParis Saint-Germain

VIL23%Draw22%PSG55%

Win to nil: Away22%Fair odds 4.54
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Over 2.568%
Both teams to score: Yes66%

Mon 2 Nov, 18:30Serie A

SassuoloFiorentina

SAS47%Draw25%FIO28%

Win to nil: Home22%Fair odds 4.56
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Over 2.558%
Both teams to score: Yes60%

Wed 4 Nov, 21:00Champions League

LensComo

RCL29%Draw26%COMO44%

Win to nil: Away22%Fair odds 4.62
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Over 2.555%
Both teams to score: Yes58%

Mon 2 Nov, 18:00Süper Lig

GenclerbirligiAlanyaspor

GEN34%Draw31%ALA35%

Win to nil: Away22%Fair odds 4.62
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Under 2.562%
Both teams to score: No54%

Wed 4 Nov, 21:00Championship

Bristol CityWolverhampton Wanderers

BRC37%Draw30%WOL33%

Win to nil: Home21%Fair odds 4.73
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Under 2.557%
Both teams to score: No51%

Tue 3 Nov, 21:00Champions League

BarcelonaAston Villa

BAR60%Draw20%AVL21%

Win to nil: Home21%Fair odds 4.76
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Over 2.575%
Both teams to score: Yes71%

Tue 3 Nov, 20:45Championship

WatfordLincoln City

WAT40%Draw28%LCN32%

Win to nil: Home21%Fair odds 4.83
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Over 2.550%
Both teams to score: Yes55%

Thu 5 Nov, 01:30Brasileirão

BotafogoAtlético-MG

BOT33%Draw28%CAM38%

Win to nil: Away20%Fair odds 4.90
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Under 2.552%
Both teams to score: Yes54%

Wed 4 Nov, 20:45Championship

WrexhamMiddlesbrough

WXM30%Draw26%MID44%

Win to nil: Away20%Fair odds 4.93
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Over 2.558%
Both teams to score: Yes61%

Tue 3 Nov, 00:00Brasileirão

Red Bull BragantinoSantos

BRA39%Draw28%SAN33%

Win to nil: Home20%Fair odds 4.94
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Under 2.551%
Both teams to score: Yes55%

Tue 3 Nov, 20:45Championship

PortsmouthSwansea City

POR35%Draw30%SWA35%

Win to nil: Away20%Fair odds 4.97
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Under 2.557%
Both teams to score: No51%

Wed 4 Nov, 16:30Europa League

Stade RennaisOlympiacos

REN40%Draw27%OLY33%

Win to nil: Home20%Fair odds 5.05
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Over 2.552%
Both teams to score: Yes57%

Tue 3 Nov, 20:45Championship

Charlton AthleticBolton Wanderers

CHA38%Draw28%BOL34%

Win to nil: Home19%Fair odds 5.21
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Over 2.551%
Both teams to score: Yes56%

Wed 4 Nov, 21:00Champions League

RB LeipzigManchester City

RBL29%Draw23%MNC48%

Win to nil: Away18%Fair odds 5.42
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Over 2.567%
Both teams to score: Yes68%

Tue 3 Nov, 18:45Champions League

GalatasarayVfB Stuttgart

GAL49%Draw22%VFB28%

Win to nil: Home18%Fair odds 5.71
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Over 2.571%
Both teams to score: Yes70%

Wed 4 Nov, 20:45Championship

Cardiff CityWest Ham United

CAR30%Draw23%WHU46%

Win to nil: Away17%Fair odds 5.75
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Over 2.568%
Both teams to score: Yes68%

Tue 3 Nov, 20:45Championship

Derby CountyNorwich City

DER36%Draw26%NOR38%

Win to nil: Away17%Fair odds 5.83
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Over 2.558%
Both teams to score: Yes61%

Tue 3 Nov, 21:00Champions League

Manchester UnitedAS Roma

MAN34%Draw25%ROMA41%

Win to nil: Away17%Fair odds 5.90
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Over 2.562%
Both teams to score: Yes64%

Wed 4 Nov, 21:00Champions League

PSV EindhovenClub Brugge

PSV61%Draw18%BRU21%

Win to nil: Home17%Fair odds 5.95
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Over 2.583%
Both teams to score: Yes77%

Thu 5 Nov, 14:25Saudi Pro League

Al KholoodAl Khaleej

KHO40%Draw25%KHA35%

Win to nil: Home16%Fair odds 6.17
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Over 2.563%
Both teams to score: Yes66%

Tue 3 Nov, 21:00Champions League

Atlético MadridBayern Munich

ATM31%Draw23%MUN46%

Win to nil: Away16%Fair odds 6.30
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Over 2.571%
Both teams to score: Yes71%

Wed 4 Nov, 18:45Champions League

FenerbahceLiverpool

FEN35%Draw24%LIV41%

Win to nil: Away16%Fair odds 6.36
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Over 2.566%
Both teams to score: Yes67%

Tue 3 Nov, 21:00Champions League

Feyenoord RotterdamInternazionale

FEY40%Draw23%INT37%

Win to nil: Home13%Fair odds 7.55
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Over 2.571%
Both teams to score: Yes71%

About this market

Win to nil needs two things at once: your team wins and keeps a clean sheet. 1-0, 2-0 and 3-0 all win; 2-1 does not. Because both conditions must hold, probabilities are lower than for a straight win and the odds are longer. It suits strong favourites with good defences playing weak attacks.

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Frequently asked questions

What does win to nil mean?

The team must win and not concede a goal.

Why is the probability lower than the win chance?

Every win where the other side scores is excluded, so win to nil is always less likely than a plain win.