La Liga predictions

Every La Liga fixture in the next seven days, with the model's probabilities for the result, goals and the most likely score.

Predictions updated 1 Nov, 15:28. Refreshed every hour.


Today, Sunday 1 November

GET30%Draw34%SEV36%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Under 2.571%
Both teams to score
No62%
Correct score
0-016%
ELC48%Draw27%VAL24%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Under 2.552%
Both teams to score
Yes52%
Correct score
1-113%

Tomorrow, Monday 2 November

DEP51%Draw26%OSA22%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Under 2.550%
Both teams to score
Yes52%
Correct score
1-113%

Friday 6 November

SEV47%Draw26%ALA27%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over 2.555%
Both teams to score
Yes58%
Correct score
1-112%

Saturday 7 November

MCF41%Draw24%RAC35%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over 2.565%
Both teams to score
Yes66%
Correct score
1-111%
ESP37%Draw30%DEP32%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Under 2.560%
Both teams to score
No52%
Correct score
1-114%
OSA34%Draw29%ATH37%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Under 2.552%
Both teams to score
Yes54%
Correct score
1-114%
VAL14%Draw21%RMA65%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over 2.557%
Both teams to score
Yes52%
Correct score
0-211%

Sunday 8 November

ELC33%Draw26%BET41%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over 2.557%
Both teams to score
Yes61%
Correct score
1-112%

La Liga through the model’s eyes

La Liga has a reputation for tight, low-scoring games outside its biggest clubs, and the numbers usually back that up: under 2.5 goals is a live option far more often than in Germany or the Netherlands. The model picks this up automatically from each side’s scoring and conceding rates, so a cagey mid-table fixture gets a very different goals forecast from a game involving a top-three attack.

Recent La Liga results and how our picks did

Sun 25 Oct, FTBacktest
Barcelona1Real Madrid2
BAR56%Draw20%RMA24%
Match result (1X2)
Home56%✗
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over 2.576%✓
Both teams to score
Yes72%✓
Sun 25 Oct, FTBacktest
Real Sociedad2Levante1
RSO53%Draw22%LEV25%
Match result (1X2)
Home53%✓
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over 2.571%✓
Both teams to score
Yes69%✓
Sun 25 Oct, FTBacktest
Celta Vigo0Real Betis0
CEL37%Draw27%BET36%
Match result (1X2)
Home37%✗
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over 2.552%✗
Both teams to score
Yes57%✗
Sun 25 Oct, FTBacktest
Athletic Club4Getafe0
ATH40%Draw37%GET23%
Match result (1X2)
Home40%✓
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Under 2.578%✗
Both teams to score
No69%✓
Sat 24 Oct, FTBacktest
Atlético Madrid1Deportivo0
ATM63%Draw21%DEP15%
Match result (1X2)
Home63%✓
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over 2.560%✗
Both teams to score
Yes55%✗
Sat 24 Oct, FTBacktest
Valencia1Villarreal2
VAL30%Draw27%VIL42%
Match result (1X2)
Away42%✓
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over 2.551%✓
Both teams to score
Yes55%✓
Sat 24 Oct, FTBacktest
Racing Santander2Espanyol1
RAC35%Draw25%ESP40%
Match result (1X2)
Away40%✗
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over 2.564%✓
Both teams to score
Yes66%✓
Sat 24 Oct, FTBacktest
Rayo Vallecano0Elche3
RAY46%Draw27%ELC27%
Match result (1X2)
Home46%✗
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over 2.551%✓
Both teams to score
Yes55%✗
Fri 23 Oct, FTBacktest
Alavés1Málaga1
ALA62%Draw23%MCF15%
Match result (1X2)
Home62%✗
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over 2.552%✗
Both teams to score
No51%✗

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Frequently asked questions

When are La Liga predictions published?

As soon as a fixture is scheduled, up to a week ahead. They refresh every hour and freeze at kick-off.

Are La Liga games usually under 2.5 goals?

Many are, especially between mid-table sides with strong defences. Check the over/under column: the model gives its own probability for each game rather than a league-wide assumption.

How does the model handle the big two?

Their ratings come from results like everyone else's. Because they score and win so often, their matches usually show the strongest home or away splits in the league.