Bundesliga predictions

Every Bundesliga fixture in the next seven days, with the model's probabilities for the result, goals and the most likely score.

Predictions updated 1 Nov, 15:28. Refreshed every hour.


Today, Sunday 1 November

Friday 6 November

Saturday 7 November

M0512%Draw14%MUN75%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over 2.585%
Both teams to score
Yes73%
Correct score
1-38%
RBL63%Draw19%FCA18%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over 2.573%
Both teams to score
Yes67%
Correct score
2-19%

1 match not shown: one of the teams has too few recent results in the leagues we cover for a reliable prediction.

Bundesliga through the model’s eyes

The Bundesliga is the goals league of Europe’s big five, with high pressing, open games and plenty of both-teams-to-score results. Expect the over 2.5 and BTTS columns to lean towards yes more often here than anywhere except the Eredivisie. The model still prices each game on its own merits, so a match between two strong defences can come out as an under.

Recent Bundesliga results and how our picks did

Sun 25 Oct, FTBacktest
SC Freiburg1Bayern Munich3
SCF20%Draw19%MUN62%
Match result (1X2)
Away62%✓
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over 2.577%✓
Both teams to score
Yes72%✓
Sun 25 Oct, FTBacktest
TSG Hoffenheim3Bayer Leverkusen0
TSG27%Draw22%B0451%
Match result (1X2)
Away51%✗
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over 2.571%✓
Both teams to score
Yes70%✗
Sat 24 Oct, FTBacktest
SC Paderborn 071Hamburg SV0
SCP43%Draw29%HSV28%
Match result (1X2)
Home43%✓
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Under 2.557%✓
Both teams to score
No51%✓
Sat 24 Oct, FTBacktest
RB Leipzig4SV Elversberg0
RBL54%Draw21%ELV25%
Match result (1X2)
Home54%✓
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over 2.573%✓
Both teams to score
Yes71%✗
Sat 24 Oct, FTBacktest
Mainz2Werder Bremen3
M0553%Draw24%SVW23%
Match result (1X2)
Home53%✗
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over 2.561%✓
Both teams to score
Yes61%✓
Sat 24 Oct, FTBacktest
FC Cologne0Schalke 040
KOE36%Draw32%S0432%
Match result (1X2)
Home36%✗
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Under 2.565%✓
Both teams to score
No57%✓
Sat 24 Oct, FTBacktest
FC Augsburg11. FC Union Berlin1
FCA58%Draw22%FCU20%
Match result (1X2)
Home58%✗
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over 2.564%✗
Both teams to score
Yes62%✓

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Frequently asked questions

When are Bundesliga predictions published?

As soon as a fixture is scheduled, up to a week ahead. They refresh every hour and freeze at kick-off.

Is the Bundesliga good for over 2.5 goals bets?

It produces more goals per game than the other big five leagues, so the model rates more Bundesliga matches as likely overs. Check each fixture's own probability rather than backing every game.

How are newly promoted teams rated?

They start close to average and their rating moves with each result, so after a few weeks the model has a clear picture.