Aston Villa vs Manchester City prediction
Saturday 24 October 2026, 12:30, Villa Park
Full time: 2-1
Our prediction
The model gives Aston Villa a 36% chance of winning, 26% for a draw and 38% for Manchester City. Expected goals: Aston Villa 1.5, Manchester City 1.6. Most likely score: 1-1.
AVL36%Draw26%MNC38%
Predictions by market
Match result (1X2)Away38%✗Fair odds 2.64Double chanceEither team74%✓Fair odds 1.35Over/Under 2.5 goalsOver 2.559%✓Fair odds 1.69Over/Under 1.5 goalsOver 1.582%✓Fair odds 1.22Both teams to scoreYes62%✓Fair odds 1.60Correct score1-112%✗Fair odds 8.47Draw no betAway51%✗Fair odds 1.96Asian handicapHome +0.562%✓Fair odds 1.61Odd/Even goalsEven52%✗Fair odds 1.93First team to scoreAway48%✗Fair odds 2.09Win to nilAway16%✗Fair odds 6.10
Goals
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% |
|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% |
| Both teams score | 62% |
Most likely scores
- 1-111.8%
- 1-28.5%
- 2-18.3%
- 2-26.5%
- 0-16.3%
Recent form
Aston Villa
- WAston Villa 3-1 Viking FK
- WNewcastle United 0-1 Aston Villa
- WAston Villa 6-0 Fenerbahce
- DAston Villa 2-2 Brentford
- WTottenham Hotspur 2-3 Aston Villa
Manchester City
- WManchester City 5-1 AEK Athens
- WManchester City 3-2 Ipswich Town
- LManchester City 2-4 Paris Saint-Germain
- WLiverpool 0-3 Manchester City
- WManchester City 5-3 Sunderland
Head to head
- WManchester City 1-2 Aston Villa
- WAston Villa 1-0 Manchester City
How this prediction was made
This is a statistical forecast, not a guarantee. It comes from a goals model fitted on 7,081 recent results across Europe's top leagues, weighting recent matches more heavily. Picks freeze at kick-off and are graded in our public track record. Read the full methodology.