Chelsea vs AFC Bournemouth prediction
Saturday 10 October 2026, 15:00, Stamford Bridge
Full time: 5-1
Our prediction
The model gives Chelsea a 41% chance of winning, 25% for a draw and 34% for AFC Bournemouth. Expected goals: Chelsea 1.7, AFC Bournemouth 1.5. Most likely score: 1-1.
CHE41%Draw25%BOU34%
Predictions by market
Match result (1X2)Home41%✓Fair odds 2.44Double chanceEither team75%✓Fair odds 1.33Over/Under 2.5 goalsOver 2.563%✓Fair odds 1.59Over/Under 1.5 goalsOver 1.584%✓Fair odds 1.19Both teams to scoreYes65%✓Fair odds 1.53Correct score1-111%✗Fair odds 9.07Draw no betHome54%✓Fair odds 1.84Asian handicapAway +0.559%✗Fair odds 1.69Odd/Even goalsEven52%✓Fair odds 1.93First team to scoreHome50%✓Fair odds 2.00Win to nilHome17%✗Fair odds 6.03
Goals
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% |
|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% |
| Both teams score | 65% |
Most likely scores
- 1-111%
- 2-18.7%
- 1-27.9%
- 2-26.7%
- 1-05.8%
Recent form
Chelsea
- LBrentford 3-0 Chelsea
- DChelsea 2-2 Hull City
- LArsenal 2-1 Chelsea
- WChelsea 4-3 Brighton & Hove Albion
- WFulham 2-3 Chelsea
AFC Bournemouth
- LAFC Bournemouth 0-1 Liverpool
- WReal Sociedad 1-2 AFC Bournemouth
- DAFC Bournemouth 2-2 Brentford
- DNewcastle United 2-2 AFC Bournemouth
- DAFC Bournemouth 1-1 Everton
Head to head
- DChelsea 2-2 AFC Bournemouth
- DAFC Bournemouth 0-0 Chelsea
How this prediction was made
This is a statistical forecast, not a guarantee. It comes from a goals model fitted on 7,122 recent results across Europe's top leagues, weighting recent matches more heavily. Picks freeze at kick-off and are graded in our public track record. Read the full methodology.