Newcastle United vs Aston Villa prediction
Saturday 17 October 2026, 17:30, St. James' Park
Full time: 0-1
Our prediction
The model gives Newcastle United a 39% chance of winning, 25% for a draw and 36% for Aston Villa. Expected goals: Newcastle United 1.7, Aston Villa 1.6. Most likely score: 1-1.
NEW39%Draw25%AVL36%
Predictions by market
Match result (1X2)Home39%✗Fair odds 2.54Double chanceEither team75%✓Fair odds 1.33Over/Under 2.5 goalsOver 2.564%✗Fair odds 1.57Over/Under 1.5 goalsOver 1.585%✗Fair odds 1.18Both teams to scoreYes66%✗Fair odds 1.52Correct score1-111%✗Fair odds 9.17Draw no betHome52%✗Fair odds 1.91Asian handicapAway +0.561%✓Fair odds 1.65Odd/Even goalsEven52%✗Fair odds 1.93First team to scoreHome49%✗Fair odds 2.04Win to nilHome16%✗Fair odds 6.41
Goals
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% |
|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% |
| Both teams score | 66% |
Most likely scores
- 1-110.9%
- 2-18.5%
- 1-28.1%
- 2-26.8%
- 1-05.5%
Recent form
Newcastle United
- LCoventry City 4-1 Newcastle United
- WNewcastle United 2-1 Hull City
- LLeeds United 4-1 Newcastle United
- DNewcastle United 2-2 AFC Bournemouth
- WTottenham Hotspur 0-2 Newcastle United
Aston Villa
- WAston Villa 6-0 Fenerbahce
- DAston Villa 2-2 Brentford
- WTottenham Hotspur 2-3 Aston Villa
- LAston Villa 1-2 Nottingham Forest
- WClub Brugge 2-3 Aston Villa
Head to head
- LNewcastle United 0-2 Aston Villa
How this prediction was made
This is a statistical forecast, not a guarantee. It comes from a goals model fitted on 7,122 recent results across Europe's top leagues, weighting recent matches more heavily. Picks freeze at kick-off and are graded in our public track record. Read the full methodology.