Toluca vs Monterrey prediction
Sunday 8 November 2026, 02:00, Estadio Nemesio Díez Riega
Our prediction
The model gives Toluca a 55% chance of winning, 23% for a draw and 22% for Monterrey. Expected goals: Toluca 2.1, Monterrey 1.2. Most likely score: 1-1.
TOL55%Draw23%MTY22%
Predictions by market
Match result (1X2)Home55%Fair odds 1.81Double chanceHome or draw78%Fair odds 1.28Over/Under 2.5 goalsOver 2.564%Fair odds 1.56Over/Under 1.5 goalsOver 1.585%Fair odds 1.18Both teams to scoreYes63%Fair odds 1.59Correct score1-110%Fair odds 9.83Draw no betHome72%Fair odds 1.40Asian handicapHome -0.555%Fair odds 1.81Odd/Even goalsEven52%Fair odds 1.94First team to scoreHome60%Fair odds 1.68Win to nilHome24%Fair odds 4.11
Goals
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% |
|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% |
| Both teams score | 63% |
Most likely scores
- 1-110.2%
- 2-19.7%
- 2-07.8%
- 1-06.8%
- 3-16.7%
Recent form
Toluca
- DAmérica 2-2 Toluca
- DLeón 1-1 Toluca
- DToluca 2-2 Tijuana
- DToluca 1-1 Atlético de San Luis
- LTigres UANL 3-2 Toluca
Monterrey
- DMonterrey 3-3 Tijuana
- LMonterrey 0-1 Guadalajara
- WPuebla 1-4 Monterrey
- WMonterrey 2-1 Pachuca
- DAmérica 1-1 Monterrey
Head to head
- WMonterrey 0-1 Toluca
- WToluca 3-2 Monterrey
- LMonterrey 1-0 Toluca
- WToluca 6-2 Monterrey
How this prediction was made
This is a statistical forecast, not a guarantee. It comes from a goals model fitted on 7,081 recent results across Europe's top leagues, weighting recent matches more heavily. Picks freeze at kick-off and are graded in our public track record. Read the full methodology.