Benfica vs Celtic prediction
Thursday 15 October 2026, 20:00, Estádio da Luz
Full time: 4-1
Our prediction
The model gives Benfica a 62% chance of winning, 21% for a draw and 17% for Celtic. Expected goals: Benfica 2.2, Celtic 1.1. Most likely score: 2-1.
SLB62%Draw21%CEL17%
Predictions by market
Match result (1X2)Home62%✓Fair odds 1.63Double chanceHome or draw83%✓Fair odds 1.21Over/Under 2.5 goalsOver 2.565%✓Fair odds 1.55Over/Under 1.5 goalsOver 1.585%✓Fair odds 1.17Both teams to scoreYes61%✓Fair odds 1.65Correct score2-110%✗Fair odds 10.21Draw no betHome78%✓Fair odds 1.28Asian handicapHome -0.562%✓Fair odds 1.63Odd/Even goalsEven51%✗Fair odds 1.94First team to scoreHome64%✓Fair odds 1.57Win to nilHome28%✗Fair odds 3.52
Goals
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% |
|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43% |
| Both teams score | 61% |
Most likely scores
- 2-19.8%
- 1-19.5%
- 2-08.8%
- 3-17.2%
- 1-07.2%
Recent form
Benfica
- WBenfica 2-0 Vitória de Guimaraes
- LFC Porto 3-1 Benfica
- WAC Milan 0-2 Benfica
- WBenfica 3-1 Gil Vicente
- WMoreirense 0-4 Benfica
Celtic
- WMotherwell 0-2 Celtic
- LCeltic 0-1 Rangers
- LCeltic 1-3 Ferencvaros
- WSt Johnstone 0-1 Celtic
- WSt Mirren 1-2 Celtic
How this prediction was made
This is a statistical forecast, not a guarantee. It comes from a goals model fitted on 7,081 recent results across Europe's top leagues, weighting recent matches more heavily. Picks freeze at kick-off and are graded in our public track record. Read the full methodology.