Burnley vs Derby County prediction
Saturday 19 September 2026, 15:00, Turf Moor
Full time: 1-1
Our prediction
The model gives Burnley a 36% chance of winning, 27% for a draw and 37% for Derby County. Expected goals: Burnley 1.4, Derby County 1.4. Most likely score: 1-1.
BUR36%Draw27%DER37%
Predictions by market
Match result (1X2)Away37%✗Fair odds 2.68Double chanceEither team73%✗Fair odds 1.37Over/Under 2.5 goalsOver 2.554%✗Fair odds 1.85Over/Under 1.5 goalsOver 1.579%✓Fair odds 1.27Both teams to scoreYes59%✓Fair odds 1.71Correct score1-113%✓Fair odds 7.88Draw no betAway51%Fair odds 1.96Asian handicapHome +0.563%✓Fair odds 1.59Odd/Even goalsEven52%✓Fair odds 1.92First team to scoreAway47%✗Fair odds 2.12Win to nilAway18%✗Fair odds 5.63
Goals
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% |
|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% |
| Both teams score | 59% |
Most likely scores
- 1-112.7%
- 1-28.5%
- 2-18.3%
- 0-17.4%
- 1-07.2%
Recent form
Burnley
- LSwansea City 3-1 Burnley
- DWrexham 1-1 Burnley
- LBurnley 1-2 Bristol City
- DBurnley 1-1 Middlesbrough
- LNorwich City 4-1 Burnley
Derby County
- LDerby County 1-2 Birmingham City
- LDerby County 0-1 West Bromwich Albion
- LWest Ham United 3-0 Derby County
- WPortsmouth 0-2 Derby County
- LDerby County 0-3 Swansea City
How this prediction was made
This is a statistical forecast, not a guarantee. It comes from a goals model fitted on 7,122 recent results across Europe's top leagues, weighting recent matches more heavily. Picks freeze at kick-off and are graded in our public track record. Read the full methodology.