Burnley vs Middlesbrough prediction
Wednesday 2 September 2026, 20:00, Turf Moor
Full time: 1-1
Our prediction
The model gives Burnley a 23% chance of winning, 25% for a draw and 52% for Middlesbrough. Expected goals: Burnley 1.1, Middlesbrough 1.8. Most likely score: 1-1.
BUR23%Draw25%MID52%
Predictions by market
Match result (1X2)Away52%✗Fair odds 1.93Double chanceAway or draw77%✓Fair odds 1.30Over/Under 2.5 goalsOver 2.556%✗Fair odds 1.79Over/Under 1.5 goalsOver 1.580%✓Fair odds 1.25Both teams to scoreYes57%✓Fair odds 1.75Correct score1-112%✓Fair odds 8.48Draw no betAway69%Fair odds 1.44Asian handicapHome +1.571%✓Fair odds 1.42Odd/Even goalsEven52%✓Fair odds 1.93First team to scoreAway57%✓Fair odds 1.74Win to nilAway26%✗Fair odds 3.84
Goals
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% |
|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% |
| Both teams score | 57% |
Most likely scores
- 1-111.8%
- 1-29.8%
- 0-18.8%
- 0-28.6%
- 0-06.3%
Recent form
Burnley
- LNorwich City 4-1 Burnley
- LWest Bromwich Albion 3-1 Burnley
- DBurnley 2-2 West Ham United
- DBurnley 1-1 Wolverhampton Wanderers
- LArsenal 1-0 Burnley
Middlesbrough
- WMiddlesbrough 3-1 West Bromwich Albion
- LBlackburn Rovers 2-1 Middlesbrough
- WMiddlesbrough 2-1 Lincoln City
- LHull City 1-0 Middlesbrough
- DMiddlesbrough 0-0 Southampton
How this prediction was made
This is a statistical forecast, not a guarantee. It comes from a goals model fitted on 7,122 recent results across Europe's top leagues, weighting recent matches more heavily. Picks freeze at kick-off and are graded in our public track record. Read the full methodology.