Cruz Azul vs Toluca prediction
Saturday 26 September 2026, 23:50, Estadio Banorte
Full time: 3-3
Our prediction
The model gives Cruz Azul a 35% chance of winning, 27% for a draw and 38% for Toluca. Expected goals: Cruz Azul 1.4, Toluca 1.4. Most likely score: 1-1.
CAZ35%Draw27%TOL38%
Predictions by market
Match result (1X2)Away38%✗Fair odds 2.61Double chanceEither team73%✗Fair odds 1.37Over/Under 2.5 goalsOver 2.553%✓Fair odds 1.88Over/Under 1.5 goalsOver 1.578%✓Fair odds 1.28Both teams to scoreYes58%✓Fair odds 1.73Correct score1-113%✗Fair odds 7.80Draw no betAway53%Fair odds 1.90Asian handicapHome +0.562%✓Fair odds 1.62Odd/Even goalsEven52%✓Fair odds 1.92First team to scoreAway48%✗Fair odds 2.09Win to nilAway19%✗Fair odds 5.38
Goals
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% |
|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% |
| Both teams score | 58% |
Most likely scores
- 1-112.8%
- 1-28.6%
- 2-18.1%
- 0-17.8%
- 1-07.3%
Recent form
Cruz Azul
- LMonterrey 1-0 Cruz Azul
- WCruz Azul 4-3 América
- WCruz Azul 1-0 Santos
- WNecaxa 1-3 Cruz Azul
- LCruz Azul 0-2 Atlas
Toluca
- LToluca 2-3 Santos
- WPuebla 0-1 Toluca
- WToluca 5-2 Atlas
- WToluca 4-0 FC Juárez
- WQuerétaro 1-2 Toluca
Head to head
- DToluca 1-1 Cruz Azul
How this prediction was made
This is a statistical forecast, not a guarantee. It comes from a goals model fitted on 7,081 recent results across Europe's top leagues, weighting recent matches more heavily. Picks freeze at kick-off and are graded in our public track record. Read the full methodology.