Derby County vs Bolton Wanderers prediction
Friday 6 November 2026, 21:00, Pride Park
Our prediction
The model gives Derby County a 47% chance of winning, 25% for a draw and 29% for Bolton Wanderers. Expected goals: Derby County 1.8, Bolton Wanderers 1.4. Most likely score: 1-1.
DER47%Draw25%BOL29%
Predictions by market
Match result (1X2)Home47%Fair odds 2.14Double chanceEither team75%Fair odds 1.33Over/Under 2.5 goalsOver 2.561%Fair odds 1.65Over/Under 1.5 goalsOver 1.583%Fair odds 1.21Both teams to scoreYes63%Fair odds 1.60Correct score1-111%Fair odds 8.83Draw no betHome62%Fair odds 1.61Asian handicapAway +1.574%Fair odds 1.35Odd/Even goalsEven52%Fair odds 1.93First team to scoreHome54%Fair odds 1.86Win to nilHome21%Fair odds 4.87
Goals
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% |
|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% |
| Both teams score | 63% |
Most likely scores
- 1-111.3%
- 2-19.3%
- 1-27.1%
- 1-06.9%
- 2-06.9%
Recent form
Derby County
- LMillwall 4-1 Derby County
- DSheffield United 1-1 Derby County
- LDerby County 0-1 Stoke City
- LQueens Park Rangers 4-1 Derby County
- DDerby County 1-1 Wrexham
Bolton Wanderers
- LBolton Wanderers 2-3 Bristol City
- LBolton Wanderers 1-5 Middlesbrough
- DSouthampton 0-0 Bolton Wanderers
- WWolverhampton Wanderers 1-3 Bolton Wanderers
- LBolton Wanderers 1-2 Stoke City
How this prediction was made
This is a statistical forecast, not a guarantee. It comes from a goals model fitted on 7,122 recent results across Europe's top leagues, weighting recent matches more heavily. Picks freeze at kick-off and are graded in our public track record. Read the full methodology.