Derby County vs Stoke City prediction
Saturday 17 October 2026, 15:00, Pride Park
Full time: 0-1
Our prediction
The model gives Derby County a 44% chance of winning, 28% for a draw and 28% for Stoke City. Expected goals: Derby County 1.5, Stoke City 1.1. Most likely score: 1-1.
DER44%Draw28%STK28%
Predictions by market
Match result (1X2)Home44%✗Fair odds 2.28Double chanceEither team72%✓Fair odds 1.39Over/Under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.552%✓Fair odds 1.94Over/Under 1.5 goalsOver 1.574%✗Fair odds 1.34Both teams to scoreYes53%✗Fair odds 1.88Correct score1-113%✗Fair odds 7.51Draw no betHome61%✗Fair odds 1.65Asian handicapAway +0.556%✓Fair odds 1.78Odd/Even goalsEven52%✗Fair odds 1.91First team to scoreHome52%✗Fair odds 1.93Win to nilHome24%✗Fair odds 4.22
Goals
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% |
|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% |
| Both teams score | 53% |
Most likely scores
- 1-113.3%
- 1-09.9%
- 2-19.1%
- 0-08.4%
- 2-08%
Recent form
Derby County
- LQueens Park Rangers 4-1 Derby County
- DDerby County 1-1 Wrexham
- DBurnley 1-1 Derby County
- LDerby County 1-2 Birmingham City
- LDerby County 0-1 West Bromwich Albion
Stoke City
- LStoke City 2-3 Middlesbrough
- WBolton Wanderers 1-2 Stoke City
- WStoke City 2-1 Sheffield United
- WWatford 1-2 Stoke City
- DCardiff City 1-1 Stoke City
Head to head
- WDerby County 2-0 Stoke City
How this prediction was made
This is a statistical forecast, not a guarantee. It comes from a goals model fitted on 7,122 recent results across Europe's top leagues, weighting recent matches more heavily. Picks freeze at kick-off and are graded in our public track record. Read the full methodology.