Derby County vs Wrexham prediction
Saturday 10 October 2026, 15:00, Pride Park
Full time: 1-1
Our prediction
The model gives Derby County a 42% chance of winning, 27% for a draw and 31% for Wrexham. Expected goals: Derby County 1.5, Wrexham 1.3. Most likely score: 1-1.
DER42%Draw27%WXM31%
Predictions by market
Match result (1X2)Home42%✗Fair odds 2.37Double chanceEither team73%✗Fair odds 1.37Over/Under 2.5 goalsOver 2.553%✗Fair odds 1.88Over/Under 1.5 goalsOver 1.578%✓Fair odds 1.28Both teams to scoreYes57%✓Fair odds 1.74Correct score1-113%✓Fair odds 7.83Draw no betHome58%Fair odds 1.73Asian handicapAway +0.558%✓Fair odds 1.73Odd/Even goalsEven52%✓Fair odds 1.92First team to scoreHome51%✓Fair odds 1.98Win to nilHome21%✗Fair odds 4.79
Goals
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% |
|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% |
| Both teams score | 57% |
Most likely scores
- 1-112.8%
- 2-19%
- 1-08.3%
- 1-27.6%
- 2-07.1%
Recent form
Derby County
- DBurnley 1-1 Derby County
- LDerby County 1-2 Birmingham City
- LDerby County 0-1 West Bromwich Albion
- LWest Ham United 3-0 Derby County
- WPortsmouth 0-2 Derby County
Wrexham
- WWrexham 2-1 Southampton
- LWest Ham United 6-0 Wrexham
- DWrexham 1-1 Burnley
- DSwansea City 0-0 Wrexham
- WMillwall 0-3 Wrexham
Head to head
- LDerby County 1-2 Wrexham
- DWrexham 1-1 Derby County
How this prediction was made
This is a statistical forecast, not a guarantee. It comes from a goals model fitted on 7,122 recent results across Europe's top leagues, weighting recent matches more heavily. Picks freeze at kick-off and are graded in our public track record. Read the full methodology.