Mainz vs Bayer Leverkusen prediction
Saturday 10 October 2026, 14:30, MEWA ARENA
Full time: 3-4
Our prediction
The model gives Mainz a 31% chance of winning, 26% for a draw and 43% for Bayer Leverkusen. Expected goals: Mainz 1.4, Bayer Leverkusen 1.6. Most likely score: 1-1.
M0531%Draw26%B0443%
Predictions by market
Match result (1X2)Away43%✓Fair odds 2.32Double chanceEither team74%✓Fair odds 1.35Over/Under 2.5 goalsOver 2.558%✓Fair odds 1.74Over/Under 1.5 goalsOver 1.581%✓Fair odds 1.24Both teams to scoreYes61%✓Fair odds 1.65Correct score1-112%✗Fair odds 8.33Draw no betAway58%✓Fair odds 1.72Asian handicapHome +0.557%✗Fair odds 1.76Odd/Even goalsEven52%✗Fair odds 1.93First team to scoreAway51%✓Fair odds 1.95Win to nilAway20%✗Fair odds 5.06
Goals
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% |
|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% |
| Both teams score | 61% |
Most likely scores
- 1-112%
- 1-29.1%
- 2-17.6%
- 0-17.3%
- 0-26.7%
Recent form
Mainz
- WBorussia Mönchengladbach 3-4 Mainz
- LMainz 1-3 Eintracht Frankfurt
- WHamburg SV 0-5 Mainz
- DMainz 0-0 SC Paderborn 07
- W1. FC Heidenheim 1846 0-2 Mainz
Bayer Leverkusen
- WBayer Leverkusen 2-0 RB Leipzig
- WBayer Leverkusen 2-0 NK Celje
- DFC Augsburg 2-2 Bayer Leverkusen
- WBayer Leverkusen 4-0 1. FC Union Berlin
- LSV Elversberg 3-2 Bayer Leverkusen
Head to head
- DBayer Leverkusen 1-1 Mainz
- LMainz 3-4 Bayer Leverkusen
How this prediction was made
This is a statistical forecast, not a guarantee. It comes from a goals model fitted on 7,081 recent results across Europe's top leagues, weighting recent matches more heavily. Picks freeze at kick-off and are graded in our public track record. Read the full methodology.