Marseille vs Paris Saint-Germain prediction
Sunday 20 September 2026, 19:45, Stade Vélodrome
Full time: 1-2
Our prediction
The model gives Marseille a 23% chance of winning, 23% for a draw and 54% for Paris Saint-Germain. Expected goals: Marseille 1.3, Paris Saint-Germain 2.0. Most likely score: 1-1.
OLM23%Draw23%PSG54%
Predictions by market
Match result (1X2)Away54%✓Fair odds 1.86Double chanceEither team77%✓Fair odds 1.30Over/Under 2.5 goalsOver 2.564%✓Fair odds 1.56Over/Under 1.5 goalsOver 1.585%✓Fair odds 1.18Both teams to scoreYes64%✓Fair odds 1.57Correct score1-110%✗Fair odds 9.75Draw no betAway70%✓Fair odds 1.43Asian handicapHome +1.568%✓Fair odds 1.48Odd/Even goalsEven52%✗Fair odds 1.94First team to scoreAway58%✓Fair odds 1.71Win to nilAway23%✗Fair odds 4.31
Goals
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% |
|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% |
| Both teams score | 64% |
Most likely scores
- 1-110.3%
- 1-29.6%
- 0-27.5%
- 0-16.6%
- 1-36.5%
Recent form
Marseille
- LBesiktas 4-1 Marseille
- LStade Rennais 1-0 Marseille
- LMarseille 2-3 Paris FC
- LAS Monaco 2-0 Marseille
- WMarseille 4-0 Strasbourg
Paris Saint-Germain
- WBrest 0-1 Paris Saint-Germain
- WParis Saint-Germain 6-1 Slovan Bratislava
- LParis Saint-Germain 1-2 AS Monaco
- DLille 2-2 Paris Saint-Germain
- DStade Rennais 2-2 Paris Saint-Germain
Head to head
- LParis Saint-Germain 5-0 Marseille
- WMarseille 1-0 Paris Saint-Germain
How this prediction was made
This is a statistical forecast, not a guarantee. It comes from a goals model fitted on 7,122 recent results across Europe's top leagues, weighting recent matches more heavily. Picks freeze at kick-off and are graded in our public track record. Read the full methodology.