Southampton vs Bristol City prediction
Saturday 12 September 2026, 15:00, St. Mary's Stadium
Full time: 4-1
Our prediction
The model gives Southampton a 61% chance of winning, 22% for a draw and 17% for Bristol City. Expected goals: Southampton 2.1, Bristol City 1.1. Most likely score: 1-1.
SOU61%Draw22%BRC17%
Predictions by market
Match result (1X2)Home61%✓Fair odds 1.63Double chanceHome or draw83%✓Fair odds 1.21Over/Under 2.5 goalsOver 2.562%✓Fair odds 1.61Over/Under 1.5 goalsOver 1.584%✓Fair odds 1.20Both teams to scoreYes58%✓Fair odds 1.71Correct score1-110%✗Fair odds 10.00Draw no betHome78%✓Fair odds 1.28Asian handicapHome -0.561%✓Fair odds 1.63Odd/Even goalsEven52%✗Fair odds 1.94First team to scoreHome64%✓Fair odds 1.57Win to nilHome30%✗Fair odds 3.36
Goals
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% |
|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% |
| Both teams score | 58% |
Most likely scores
- 1-110%
- 2-19.9%
- 2-09.3%
- 1-08%
- 3-17.1%
Recent form
Southampton
- WSouthampton 3-1 Swansea City
- DLincoln City 1-1 Southampton
- DBirmingham City 1-1 Southampton
- WSouthampton 5-1 Millwall
- WSouthampton 3-1 Stoke City
Bristol City
- WBurnley 1-2 Bristol City
- WPreston North End 1-3 Bristol City
- WBristol City 2-1 Portsmouth
- DBirmingham City 2-2 Bristol City
- LBristol City 0-2 Millwall
Head to head
- DSouthampton 2-2 Bristol City
- LBristol City 3-1 Southampton
How this prediction was made
This is a statistical forecast, not a guarantee. It comes from a goals model fitted on 7,122 recent results across Europe's top leagues, weighting recent matches more heavily. Picks freeze at kick-off and are graded in our public track record. Read the full methodology.