Southampton vs Portsmouth prediction
Sunday 11 October 2026, 12:00, St. Mary's Stadium
Full time: 1-0
Our prediction
The model gives Southampton a 68% chance of winning, 19% for a draw and 13% for Portsmouth. Expected goals: Southampton 2.4, Portsmouth 1.0. Most likely score: 2-0.
SOU68%Draw19%POR13%
Predictions by market
Match result (1X2)Home68%✓Fair odds 1.47Double chanceHome or draw87%✓Fair odds 1.15Over/Under 2.5 goalsOver 2.565%✗Fair odds 1.53Over/Under 1.5 goalsOver 1.585%✗Fair odds 1.17Both teams to scoreYes57%✗Fair odds 1.75Correct score2-010%✗Fair odds 10.10Draw no betHome84%✓Fair odds 1.19Asian handicapHome -0.568%✓Fair odds 1.47Odd/Even goalsEven51%✗Fair odds 1.95First team to scoreHome68%✓Fair odds 1.47Win to nilHome34%✓Fair odds 2.97
Goals
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% |
|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43% |
| Both teams score | 57% |
Most likely scores
- 2-09.9%
- 2-19.6%
- 1-18.7%
- 3-07.9%
- 1-07.7%
Recent form
Southampton
- LWrexham 2-1 Southampton
- WSouthampton 4-1 Bristol City
- WSouthampton 3-1 Swansea City
- DLincoln City 1-1 Southampton
- DBirmingham City 1-1 Southampton
Portsmouth
- DPortsmouth 2-2 Blackburn Rovers
- DCharlton Athletic 0-0 Portsmouth
- WPortsmouth 2-0 Cardiff City
- LPortsmouth 0-2 Derby County
- LBristol City 2-1 Portsmouth
Head to head
- DPortsmouth 1-1 Southampton
- DSouthampton 0-0 Portsmouth
How this prediction was made
This is a statistical forecast, not a guarantee. It comes from a goals model fitted on 7,122 recent results across Europe's top leagues, weighting recent matches more heavily. Picks freeze at kick-off and are graded in our public track record. Read the full methodology.