Southampton vs Swansea City prediction
Tuesday 8 September 2026, 19:45, St. Mary's Stadium
Full time: 3-1
Our prediction
The model gives Southampton a 53% chance of winning, 25% for a draw and 22% for Swansea City. Expected goals: Southampton 1.8, Swansea City 1.1. Most likely score: 1-1.
SOU53%Draw25%SWA22%
Predictions by market
Match result (1X2)Home53%✓Fair odds 1.87Double chanceHome or draw78%✓Fair odds 1.27Over/Under 2.5 goalsOver 2.554%✓Fair odds 1.85Over/Under 1.5 goalsOver 1.578%✓Fair odds 1.28Both teams to scoreYes55%✓Fair odds 1.81Correct score1-112%✗Fair odds 8.40Draw no betHome71%✓Fair odds 1.40Asian handicapAway +1.570%✗Fair odds 1.44Odd/Even goalsEven52%✓Fair odds 1.93First team to scoreHome59%✓Fair odds 1.71Win to nilHome28%✗Fair odds 3.57
Goals
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% |
|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% |
| Both teams score | 55% |
Most likely scores
- 1-111.9%
- 2-19.8%
- 1-09.5%
- 2-09.3%
- 0-06.7%
Recent form
Southampton
- DLincoln City 1-1 Southampton
- DBirmingham City 1-1 Southampton
- WSouthampton 5-1 Millwall
- WSouthampton 3-1 Stoke City
- LWatford 2-1 Southampton
Swansea City
- DSwansea City 0-0 Wrexham
- WSwansea City 2-0 Watford
- WDerby County 0-3 Swansea City
- DSwansea City 0-0 Sheffield United
- WStoke City 1-2 Swansea City
Head to head
- WSwansea City 1-2 Southampton
- DSouthampton 0-0 Swansea City
How this prediction was made
This is a statistical forecast, not a guarantee. It comes from a goals model fitted on 7,081 recent results across Europe's top leagues, weighting recent matches more heavily. Picks freeze at kick-off and are graded in our public track record. Read the full methodology.