Sunderland vs AZ Alkmaar prediction
Wednesday 16 September 2026, 20:00, Stadium of Light
Full time: 1-0
Our prediction
The model gives Sunderland a 39% chance of winning, 29% for a draw and 32% for AZ Alkmaar. Expected goals: Sunderland 1.4, AZ Alkmaar 1.2. Most likely score: 1-1.
SUN39%Draw29%AZ32%
Predictions by market
Match result (1X2)Home39%✓Fair odds 2.56Double chanceEither team71%✓Fair odds 1.40Over/Under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.553%✓Fair odds 1.89Over/Under 1.5 goalsOver 1.574%✗Fair odds 1.36Both teams to scoreYes53%✗Fair odds 1.89Correct score1-114%✗Fair odds 7.34Draw no betHome55%✓Fair odds 1.83Asian handicapAway +0.561%✗Fair odds 1.64Odd/Even goalsEven52%✗Fair odds 1.91First team to scoreHome48%✓Fair odds 2.08Win to nilHome21%✓Fair odds 4.74
Goals
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% |
|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% |
| Both teams score | 53% |
Most likely scores
- 1-113.6%
- 1-09.4%
- 0-08.7%
- 2-18.5%
- 0-18.3%
Recent form
Sunderland
- LSunderland 0-2 Arsenal
- DBrentford 1-1 Sunderland
- WSunderland 1-0 Fulham
- LIpswich Town 2-1 Sunderland
- WSunderland 2-1 Chelsea
AZ Alkmaar
- DAZ Alkmaar 1-1 Willem II
- WHeerenveen 2-3 AZ Alkmaar
- WAZ Alkmaar 5-2 Go Ahead Eagles
- WFortuna Sittard 0-2 AZ Alkmaar
- WFC Utrecht 1-4 AZ Alkmaar
How this prediction was made
This is a statistical forecast, not a guarantee. It comes from a goals model fitted on 7,122 recent results across Europe's top leagues, weighting recent matches more heavily. Picks freeze at kick-off and are graded in our public track record. Read the full methodology.