Toluca vs Atlas prediction
Sunday 13 September 2026, 00:05, Estadio Nemesio Díez Riega
Full time: 5-2
Our prediction
The model gives Toluca a 59% chance of winning, 26% for a draw and 15% for Atlas. Expected goals: Toluca 1.7, Atlas 0.7. Most likely score: 1-0.
TOL59%Draw26%ATS15%
Predictions by market
Match result (1X2)Home59%✓Fair odds 1.69Double chanceHome or draw85%✓Fair odds 1.18Over/Under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.557%✗Fair odds 1.76Over/Under 1.5 goalsOver 1.570%✓Fair odds 1.43Both teams to scoreNo57%✗Fair odds 1.75Correct score1-014%✗Fair odds 7.00Draw no betHome80%✓Fair odds 1.25Asian handicapHome -0.559%✓Fair odds 1.69Odd/Even goalsEven52%✗Fair odds 1.92First team to scoreHome63%✓Fair odds 1.59Win to nilHome38%✗Fair odds 2.60
Goals
| Over 1.5 goals | 70% |
|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% |
| Both teams score | 43% |
Most likely scores
- 1-014.3%
- 2-012.7%
- 1-111.9%
- 0-09.9%
- 2-19.2%
Recent form
Toluca
- WToluca 4-0 FC Juárez
- WQuerétaro 1-2 Toluca
- DAtlante 0-0 Toluca
- WToluca 3-1 Necaxa
- LToluca 1-2 Pumas UNAM
Atlas
- DAtlas 1-1 Atlante
- LAtlas 1-3 Querétaro
- WCruz Azul 0-2 Atlas
- WAtlas 2-1 Tigres UANL
- LAtlas 0-2 Monterrey
Head to head
- DToluca 1-1 Atlas
- DAtlas 0-0 Toluca
How this prediction was made
This is a statistical forecast, not a guarantee. It comes from a goals model fitted on 7,122 recent results across Europe's top leagues, weighting recent matches more heavily. Picks freeze at kick-off and are graded in our public track record. Read the full methodology.