Toluca vs Santos prediction
Monday 21 September 2026, 01:00, Estadio Nemesio Díez Riega
Full time: 2-3
Our prediction
The model gives Toluca a 75% chance of winning, 17% for a draw and 8% for Santos. Expected goals: Toluca 2.4, Santos 0.7. Most likely score: 2-0.
TOL75%Draw17%SAN8%
Predictions by market
Match result (1X2)Home75%✗Fair odds 1.33Double chanceHome or draw92%✗Fair odds 1.09Over/Under 2.5 goalsOver 2.561%✓Fair odds 1.64Over/Under 1.5 goalsOver 1.583%✓Fair odds 1.21Both teams to scoreNo53%✗Fair odds 1.88Correct score2-013%✗Fair odds 7.81Draw no betHome90%✗Fair odds 1.11Asian handicapHome -0.575%✗Fair odds 1.33Odd/Even goalsEven51%✗Fair odds 1.95First team to scoreHome74%✓Fair odds 1.35Win to nilHome45%✗Fair odds 2.25
Goals
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% |
|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% |
| Both teams score | 47% |
Most likely scores
- 2-012.8%
- 3-010.4%
- 1-09.9%
- 2-19%
- 1-18%
Recent form
Toluca
- WPuebla 0-1 Toluca
- WToluca 5-2 Atlas
- WToluca 4-0 FC Juárez
- WQuerétaro 1-2 Toluca
- DAtlante 0-0 Toluca
Santos
- WSantos 2-1 FC Juárez
- LCruz Azul 1-0 Santos
- DSantos 0-0 Tigres UANL
- LPuebla 3-2 Santos
- LSantos 0-1 Guadalajara
Head to head
- WToluca 3-1 Santos
How this prediction was made
This is a statistical forecast, not a guarantee. It comes from a goals model fitted on 7,081 recent results across Europe's top leagues, weighting recent matches more heavily. Picks freeze at kick-off and are graded in our public track record. Read the full methodology.