Toluca vs Tijuana prediction
Thursday 22 October 2026, 02:00, Estadio Nemesio Díez Riega
Full time: 2-2
Our prediction
The model gives Toluca a 54% chance of winning, 25% for a draw and 21% for Tijuana. Expected goals: Toluca 1.8, Tijuana 1.0. Most likely score: 1-1.
TOL54%Draw25%TIJ21%
Predictions by market
Match result (1X2)Home54%✗Fair odds 1.86Double chanceHome or draw79%✓Fair odds 1.27Over/Under 2.5 goalsOver 2.553%✓Fair odds 1.90Over/Under 1.5 goalsOver 1.577%✓Fair odds 1.29Both teams to scoreYes54%✓Fair odds 1.85Correct score1-112%✗Fair odds 8.31Draw no betHome72%Fair odds 1.39Asian handicapAway +1.569%✓Fair odds 1.44Odd/Even goalsEven52%✓Fair odds 1.92First team to scoreHome59%✗Fair odds 1.70Win to nilHome29%✗Fair odds 3.47
Goals
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% |
|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% |
| Both teams score | 54% |
Most likely scores
- 1-112%
- 1-010%
- 2-19.8%
- 2-09.6%
- 0-07.1%
Recent form
Toluca
- DToluca 1-1 Atlético de San Luis
- LTigres UANL 3-2 Toluca
- DCruz Azul 3-3 Toluca
- LToluca 2-3 Santos
- WPuebla 0-1 Toluca
Tijuana
- DTijuana 0-0 Puebla
- DFC Juárez 1-1 Tijuana
- LTijuana 2-3 Atlas
- DPachuca 2-2 Tijuana
- LTijuana 0-1 Querétaro
Head to head
- WToluca 1-0 Tijuana
- DTijuana 0-0 Toluca
How this prediction was made
This is a statistical forecast, not a guarantee. It comes from a goals model fitted on 7,081 recent results across Europe's top leagues, weighting recent matches more heavily. Picks freeze at kick-off and are graded in our public track record. Read the full methodology.