Watford vs Stoke City prediction
Saturday 12 September 2026, 15:00, Vicarage Road
Full time: 1-2
Our prediction
The model gives Watford a 39% chance of winning, 29% for a draw and 31% for Stoke City. Expected goals: Watford 1.3, Stoke City 1.1. Most likely score: 1-1.
WAT39%Draw29%STK31%
Predictions by market
Match result (1X2)Home39%✗Fair odds 2.54Double chanceEither team71%✓Fair odds 1.42Over/Under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.556%✗Fair odds 1.78Over/Under 1.5 goalsOver 1.571%✓Fair odds 1.41Both teams to scoreYes50%✓Fair odds 1.99Correct score1-114%✗Fair odds 7.16Draw no betHome56%✗Fair odds 1.79Asian handicapAway +0.561%✓Fair odds 1.65Odd/Even goalsEven52%✗Fair odds 1.91First team to scoreHome48%✗Fair odds 2.07Win to nilHome22%✗Fair odds 4.45
Goals
| Over 1.5 goals | 71% |
|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% |
| Both teams score | 50% |
Most likely scores
- 1-114%
- 1-010.4%
- 0-09.8%
- 0-18.9%
- 2-18.4%
Recent form
Watford
- WWatford 2-1 Preston North End
- LWest Bromwich Albion 1-0 Watford
- LSwansea City 2-0 Watford
- DWatford 1-1 West Ham United
- DWrexham 1-1 Watford
Stoke City
- DCardiff City 1-1 Stoke City
- WStoke City 4-0 Charlton Athletic
- WStoke City 1-0 Norwich City
- LWolverhampton Wanderers 4-1 Stoke City
- LSouthampton 3-1 Stoke City
Head to head
- LStoke City 3-1 Watford
- WWatford 1-0 Stoke City
How this prediction was made
This is a statistical forecast, not a guarantee. It comes from a goals model fitted on 7,081 recent results across Europe's top leagues, weighting recent matches more heavily. Picks freeze at kick-off and are graded in our public track record. Read the full methodology.