West Ham United vs Derby County prediction
Saturday 5 September 2026, 15:00, London Stadium
Full time: 3-0
Our prediction
The model gives West Ham United a 43% chance of winning, 27% for a draw and 30% for Derby County. Expected goals: West Ham United 1.6, Derby County 1.3. Most likely score: 1-1.
WHU43%Draw27%DER30%
Predictions by market
Match result (1X2)Home43%✓Fair odds 2.33Double chanceEither team73%✓Fair odds 1.36Over/Under 2.5 goalsOver 2.554%✓Fair odds 1.86Over/Under 1.5 goalsOver 1.578%✓Fair odds 1.28Both teams to scoreYes58%✗Fair odds 1.73Correct score1-113%✗Fair odds 7.92Draw no betHome59%✓Fair odds 1.71Asian handicapAway +0.557%✗Fair odds 1.75Odd/Even goalsEven52%✗Fair odds 1.92First team to scoreHome51%✓Fair odds 1.95Win to nilHome21%✓Fair odds 4.76
Goals
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% |
|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% |
| Both teams score | 58% |
Most likely scores
- 1-112.6%
- 2-19.1%
- 1-08.2%
- 1-27.5%
- 2-07.1%
Recent form
West Ham United
- WWest Ham United 4-2 Wolverhampton Wanderers
- DWatford 1-1 West Ham United
- LWest Ham United 1-2 Charlton Athletic
- DBurnley 2-2 West Ham United
- WWest Ham United 3-0 Leeds United
Derby County
- WPortsmouth 0-2 Derby County
- LDerby County 0-3 Swansea City
- DDerby County 2-2 Cardiff City
- LCharlton Athletic 2-1 Derby County
- LDerby County 1-2 Sheffield United
How this prediction was made
This is a statistical forecast, not a guarantee. It comes from a goals model fitted on 7,122 recent results across Europe's top leagues, weighting recent matches more heavily. Picks freeze at kick-off and are graded in our public track record. Read the full methodology.