Ajax Amsterdam vs Excelsior prediction
Saturday 19 September 2026, 19:00, Johan Cruijff Arena
Full time: 2-2
Our prediction
The model gives Ajax Amsterdam a 53% chance of winning, 25% for a draw and 22% for Excelsior. Expected goals: Ajax Amsterdam 1.8, Excelsior 1.1. Most likely score: 1-1.
AJA53%Draw25%EXC22%
Predictions by market
Match result (1X2)Home53%✗Fair odds 1.88Double chanceHome or draw78%✓Fair odds 1.29Over/Under 2.5 goalsOver 2.557%✓Fair odds 1.75Over/Under 1.5 goalsOver 1.580%✓Fair odds 1.24Both teams to scoreYes58%✓Fair odds 1.73Correct score1-112%✗Fair odds 8.68Draw no betHome70%Fair odds 1.42Asian handicapAway +1.569%✓Fair odds 1.44Odd/Even goalsEven52%✓Fair odds 1.93First team to scoreHome58%✓Fair odds 1.72Win to nilHome26%✗Fair odds 3.80
Goals
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% |
|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% |
| Both teams score | 58% |
Most likely scores
- 1-111.5%
- 2-19.8%
- 2-08.7%
- 1-08.6%
- 1-26%
Recent form
Ajax Amsterdam
- WAjax Amsterdam 5-1 Willem II
- WFortuna Sittard 1-5 Ajax Amsterdam
- LAjax Amsterdam 1-3 PSV Eindhoven
- WTelstar 0-4 Ajax Amsterdam
- DAjax Amsterdam 2-2 Heerenveen
Excelsior
- LExcelsior 1-2 FC Utrecht
- DNEC Nijmegen 2-2 Excelsior
- WWillem II 0-3 Excelsior
- WExcelsior 2-1 Sparta Rotterdam
- LExcelsior 1-2 PSV Eindhoven
Head to head
- DExcelsior 2-2 Ajax Amsterdam
- LAjax Amsterdam 1-2 Excelsior
How this prediction was made
This is a statistical forecast, not a guarantee. It comes from a goals model fitted on 7,081 recent results across Europe's top leagues, weighting recent matches more heavily. Picks freeze at kick-off and are graded in our public track record. Read the full methodology.