Ajax Amsterdam vs PSV Eindhoven prediction
Saturday 5 September 2026, 19:00, Johan Cruijff Arena
Full time: 1-3
Our prediction
The model gives Ajax Amsterdam a 35% chance of winning, 22% for a draw and 43% for PSV Eindhoven. Expected goals: Ajax Amsterdam 1.8, PSV Eindhoven 2.0. Most likely score: 1-1.
AJA35%Draw22%PSV43%
Predictions by market
Match result (1X2)Away43%✓Fair odds 2.33Double chanceEither team78%✓Fair odds 1.29Over/Under 2.5 goalsOver 2.573%✓Fair odds 1.37Over/Under 1.5 goalsOver 1.590%✓Fair odds 1.11Both teams to scoreYes73%✓Fair odds 1.37Correct score1-19%✗Fair odds 11.48Draw no betAway55%✓Fair odds 1.81Asian handicapHome +0.557%✗Fair odds 1.75Odd/Even goalsEven51%✓Fair odds 1.95First team to scoreAway51%✓Fair odds 1.95Win to nilAway14%✗Fair odds 7.27
Goals
| Over 1.5 goals | 90% |
|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 73% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 53% |
| Both teams score | 73% |
Most likely scores
- 1-18.7%
- 1-28.1%
- 2-27.2%
- 2-17.2%
- 1-35.4%
Recent form
Ajax Amsterdam
- WTelstar 0-4 Ajax Amsterdam
- DAjax Amsterdam 2-2 Heerenveen
- WPEC Zwolle 0-2 Ajax Amsterdam
- WAjax Amsterdam 2-0 FC Groningen
- DHeerenveen 0-0 Ajax Amsterdam
PSV Eindhoven
- WFC Utrecht 1-6 PSV Eindhoven
- WPSV Eindhoven 5-1 FC Groningen
- WExcelsior 1-2 PSV Eindhoven
- DPSV Eindhoven 2-2 Fortuna Sittard
- WPSV Eindhoven 5-1 FC Twente
Head to head
- DAjax Amsterdam 2-2 PSV Eindhoven
- DPSV Eindhoven 2-2 Ajax Amsterdam
How this prediction was made
This is a statistical forecast, not a guarantee. It comes from a goals model fitted on 7,081 recent results across Europe's top leagues, weighting recent matches more heavily. Picks freeze at kick-off and are graded in our public track record. Read the full methodology.