Ajax Amsterdam vs Willem II prediction
Tuesday 15 September 2026, 19:00, Johan Cruijff Arena
Full time: 5-1
Our prediction
The model gives Ajax Amsterdam a 77% chance of winning, 15% for a draw and 9% for Willem II. Expected goals: Ajax Amsterdam 2.8, Willem II 0.9. Most likely score: 2-0.
AJA77%Draw15%WIL9%
Predictions by market
Match result (1X2)Home77%✓Fair odds 1.30Double chanceHome or draw91%✓Fair odds 1.09Over/Under 2.5 goalsOver 2.572%✓Fair odds 1.39Over/Under 1.5 goalsOver 1.589%✓Fair odds 1.12Both teams to scoreYes56%✓Fair odds 1.78Correct score2-010%✗Fair odds 10.36Draw no betHome90%✓Fair odds 1.11Asian handicapHome -1.557%✓Fair odds 1.74Odd/Even goalsEven51%✓Fair odds 1.96First team to scoreHome74%✓Fair odds 1.35Win to nilHome38%✗Fair odds 2.63
Goals
| Over 1.5 goals | 89% |
|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 72% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 51% |
| Both teams score | 56% |
Most likely scores
- 2-09.7%
- 3-09.1%
- 2-18.6%
- 3-18.2%
- 1-16.6%
Recent form
Ajax Amsterdam
- WFortuna Sittard 1-5 Ajax Amsterdam
- LAjax Amsterdam 1-3 PSV Eindhoven
- WTelstar 0-4 Ajax Amsterdam
- DAjax Amsterdam 2-2 Heerenveen
- WPEC Zwolle 0-2 Ajax Amsterdam
Willem II
- DAZ Alkmaar 1-1 Willem II
- LWillem II 0-3 Excelsior
- DWillem II 2-2 Heerenveen
- LWillem II 1-4 NEC Nijmegen
- LGo Ahead Eagles 4-1 Willem II
How this prediction was made
This is a statistical forecast, not a guarantee. It comes from a goals model fitted on 7,081 recent results across Europe's top leagues, weighting recent matches more heavily. Picks freeze at kick-off and are graded in our public track record. Read the full methodology.