Alavés vs Atlético Madrid prediction
Saturday 10 October 2026, 15:15, Mendizorrotza
Full time: 1-2
Our prediction
The model gives Alavés a 29% chance of winning, 26% for a draw and 45% for Atlético Madrid. Expected goals: Alavés 1.3, Atlético Madrid 1.7. Most likely score: 1-1.
ALA29%Draw26%ATM45%
Predictions by market
Match result (1X2)Away45%✓Fair odds 2.21Double chanceEither team74%✓Fair odds 1.35Over/Under 2.5 goalsOver 2.556%✓Fair odds 1.78Over/Under 1.5 goalsOver 1.580%✓Fair odds 1.25Both teams to scoreYes59%✓Fair odds 1.69Correct score1-112%✗Fair odds 8.22Draw no betAway61%✓Fair odds 1.64Asian handicapHome +1.576%✓Fair odds 1.32Odd/Even goalsEven52%✗Fair odds 1.93First team to scoreAway53%✓Fair odds 1.89Win to nilAway22%✗Fair odds 4.65
Goals
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% |
|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% |
| Both teams score | 59% |
Most likely scores
- 1-112.2%
- 1-29.3%
- 0-17.9%
- 0-27.3%
- 2-17.2%
Recent form
Alavés
- DAthletic Club 0-0 Alavés
- LAlavés 0-1 Valencia
- LRacing Santander 2-1 Alavés
- WAlavés 5-2 Osasuna
- WAlavés 1-0 Villarreal
Atlético Madrid
- WAtlético Madrid 2-1 Real Madrid
- WAtlético Madrid 4-0 Osasuna
- WReal Sociedad 0-3 Atlético Madrid
- LLiverpool 2-1 Atlético Madrid
- LAthletic Club 3-0 Atlético Madrid
Head to head
- LAtlético Madrid 1-0 Alavés
How this prediction was made
This is a statistical forecast, not a guarantee. It comes from a goals model fitted on 7,122 recent results across Europe's top leagues, weighting recent matches more heavily. Picks freeze at kick-off and are graded in our public track record. Read the full methodology.