Alavés vs Málaga prediction
Friday 23 October 2026, 20:00, Mendizorrotza
Full time: 1-1
Our prediction
The model gives Alavés a 62% chance of winning, 23% for a draw and 15% for Málaga. Expected goals: Alavés 1.9, Málaga 0.8. Most likely score: 2-0.
ALA62%Draw23%MCF15%
Predictions by market
Match result (1X2)Home62%✗Fair odds 1.63Double chanceHome or draw85%✓Fair odds 1.18Over/Under 2.5 goalsOver 2.552%✗Fair odds 1.93Over/Under 1.5 goalsOver 1.577%✓Fair odds 1.30Both teams to scoreNo51%✗Fair odds 1.98Correct score2-012%✗Fair odds 8.62Draw no betHome80%Fair odds 1.25Asian handicapHome -0.562%✗Fair odds 1.63Odd/Even goalsEven52%✓Fair odds 1.93First team to scoreHome64%✗Fair odds 1.56Win to nilHome36%✗Fair odds 2.80
Goals
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% |
|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% |
| Both teams score | 49% |
Most likely scores
- 2-011.6%
- 1-011.4%
- 1-111.1%
- 2-19.8%
- 3-07.4%
Recent form
Alavés
- LCelta Vigo 2-1 Alavés
- LAlavés 1-2 Atlético Madrid
- DAthletic Club 0-0 Alavés
- LAlavés 0-1 Valencia
- LRacing Santander 2-1 Alavés
Málaga
- LMálaga 2-5 Real Sociedad
- DMálaga 1-1 Espanyol
- LGetafe 1-0 Málaga
- LMálaga 1-3 Villarreal
- DCelta Vigo 1-1 Málaga
How this prediction was made
This is a statistical forecast, not a guarantee. It comes from a goals model fitted on 7,081 recent results across Europe's top leagues, weighting recent matches more heavily. Picks freeze at kick-off and are graded in our public track record. Read the full methodology.