AS Roma vs Real Madrid prediction
Wednesday 14 October 2026, 20:00, Olimpico
Full time: 3-4
Our prediction
The model gives AS Roma a 42% chance of winning, 28% for a draw and 30% for Real Madrid. Expected goals: AS Roma 1.5, Real Madrid 1.2. Most likely score: 1-1.
ROMA42%Draw28%RMA30%
Predictions by market
Match result (1X2)Home42%✗Fair odds 2.35Double chanceEither team72%✓Fair odds 1.39Over/Under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.551%✗Fair odds 1.96Over/Under 1.5 goalsOver 1.575%✓Fair odds 1.34Both teams to scoreYes54%✓Fair odds 1.85Correct score1-113%✗Fair odds 7.51Draw no betHome59%✗Fair odds 1.70Asian handicapAway +0.558%✓Fair odds 1.74Odd/Even goalsEven52%✗Fair odds 1.91First team to scoreHome51%✓Fair odds 1.97Win to nilHome23%✗Fair odds 4.42
Goals
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% |
|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% |
| Both teams score | 54% |
Most likely scores
- 1-113.3%
- 1-09.5%
- 2-19%
- 0-08.2%
- 2-07.6%
Recent form
AS Roma
- DComo 0-0 AS Roma
- DAS Roma 2-2 Internazionale
- WTorino 0-2 AS Roma
- DFenerbahce 1-1 AS Roma
- WAS Roma 2-1 Atalanta
Real Madrid
- WReal Madrid 1-0 Villarreal
- LAtlético Madrid 2-1 Real Madrid
- WElche 2-3 Real Madrid
- WReal Madrid 4-1 Rayo Vallecano
- WReal Madrid 2-1 Internazionale
How this prediction was made
This is a statistical forecast, not a guarantee. It comes from a goals model fitted on 7,122 recent results across Europe's top leagues, weighting recent matches more heavily. Picks freeze at kick-off and are graded in our public track record. Read the full methodology.