Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid prediction
Sunday 20 September 2026, 15:15, Riyadh Air Metropolitano
Full time: 2-1
Our prediction
The model gives Atlético Madrid a 30% chance of winning, 25% for a draw and 45% for Real Madrid. Expected goals: Atlético Madrid 1.4, Real Madrid 1.8. Most likely score: 1-1.
ATM30%Draw25%RMA45%
Predictions by market
Match result (1X2)Away45%✗Fair odds 2.22Double chanceEither team75%✓Fair odds 1.33Over/Under 2.5 goalsOver 2.563%✓Fair odds 1.59Over/Under 1.5 goalsOver 1.584%✓Fair odds 1.19Both teams to scoreYes64%✓Fair odds 1.55Correct score1-111%✗Fair odds 9.09Draw no betAway60%✗Fair odds 1.68Asian handicapHome +0.555%✓Fair odds 1.82Odd/Even goalsEven52%✗Fair odds 1.93First team to scoreAway53%✗Fair odds 1.90Win to nilAway19%✗Fair odds 5.32
Goals
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% |
|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% |
| Both teams score | 64% |
Most likely scores
- 1-111%
- 1-29.1%
- 2-17.4%
- 2-26.6%
- 0-26.3%
Recent form
Atlético Madrid
- WAtlético Madrid 4-0 Osasuna
- WReal Sociedad 0-3 Atlético Madrid
- LLiverpool 2-1 Atlético Madrid
- LAthletic Club 3-0 Atlético Madrid
- WSevilla 1-3 Atlético Madrid
Real Madrid
- WElche 2-3 Real Madrid
- WReal Madrid 4-1 Rayo Vallecano
- WReal Madrid 2-1 Internazionale
- LReal Betis 1-0 Real Madrid
- WReal Madrid 4-0 Málaga
Head to head
- LReal Madrid 3-2 Atlético Madrid
- WAtlético Madrid 5-2 Real Madrid
How this prediction was made
This is a statistical forecast, not a guarantee. It comes from a goals model fitted on 7,122 recent results across Europe's top leagues, weighting recent matches more heavily. Picks freeze at kick-off and are graded in our public track record. Read the full methodology.