AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II prediction
Friday 11 September 2026, 19:00, AFAS Stadion
Full time: 1-1
Our prediction
The model gives AZ Alkmaar a 81% chance of winning, 12% for a draw and 7% for Willem II. Expected goals: AZ Alkmaar 3.2, Willem II 0.9. Most likely score: 3-0.
AZ81%Draw12%WIL7%
Predictions by market
Match result (1X2)Home81%✗Fair odds 1.23Double chanceHome or draw93%✓Fair odds 1.07Over/Under 2.5 goalsOver 2.579%✗Fair odds 1.27Over/Under 1.5 goalsOver 1.592%✓Fair odds 1.08Both teams to scoreYes59%✓Fair odds 1.70Correct score3-09%✗Fair odds 11.53Draw no betHome92%Fair odds 1.09Asian handicapHome -1.564%✗Fair odds 1.57Odd/Even goalsEven51%✓Fair odds 1.97First team to scoreHome76%✓Fair odds 1.32Win to nilHome37%✗Fair odds 2.69
Goals
| Over 1.5 goals | 92% |
|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 79% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 60% |
| Both teams score | 59% |
Most likely scores
- 3-08.7%
- 3-18.2%
- 2-08.1%
- 2-17.6%
- 4-07%
Recent form
AZ Alkmaar
- WHeerenveen 2-3 AZ Alkmaar
- WAZ Alkmaar 5-2 Go Ahead Eagles
- WFortuna Sittard 0-2 AZ Alkmaar
- WFC Utrecht 1-4 AZ Alkmaar
- WAZ Alkmaar 2-0 ADO Den Haag
Willem II
- LWillem II 0-3 Excelsior
- DWillem II 2-2 Heerenveen
- LWillem II 1-4 NEC Nijmegen
- LGo Ahead Eagles 4-1 Willem II
How this prediction was made
This is a statistical forecast, not a guarantee. It comes from a goals model fitted on 7,122 recent results across Europe's top leagues, weighting recent matches more heavily. Picks freeze at kick-off and are graded in our public track record. Read the full methodology.