Barcelona vs Real Madrid prediction
Sunday 25 October 2026, 21:00, Spotify Camp Nou
Full time: 1-2
Our prediction
The model gives Barcelona a 56% chance of winning, 20% for a draw and 24% for Real Madrid. Expected goals: Barcelona 2.4, Real Madrid 1.5. Most likely score: 2-1.
BAR56%Draw20%RMA24%
Predictions by market
Match result (1X2)Home56%✗Fair odds 1.78Double chanceEither team80%✓Fair odds 1.26Over/Under 2.5 goalsOver 2.576%✓Fair odds 1.32Over/Under 1.5 goalsOver 1.591%✓Fair odds 1.10Both teams to scoreYes72%✓Fair odds 1.38Correct score2-19%✗Fair odds 11.66Draw no betHome70%✗Fair odds 1.42Asian handicapHome -0.556%✗Fair odds 1.78Odd/Even goalsEven51%✗Fair odds 1.95First team to scoreHome59%✗Fair odds 1.68Win to nilHome19%✗Fair odds 5.33
Goals
| Over 1.5 goals | 91% |
|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 76% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 56% |
| Both teams score | 72% |
Most likely scores
- 2-18.6%
- 1-17.7%
- 3-16.9%
- 2-26.7%
- 2-05.5%
Recent form
Barcelona
- LParis Saint-Germain 4-2 Barcelona
- WReal Betis 2-5 Barcelona
- WGalatasaray 1-4 Barcelona
- WBarcelona 3-0 Getafe
- WSevilla 1-3 Barcelona
Real Madrid
- WReal Madrid 4-1 RB Leipzig
- WReal Madrid 4-1 Sevilla
- WAS Roma 3-4 Real Madrid
- WReal Madrid 1-0 Villarreal
- LAtlético Madrid 2-1 Real Madrid
Head to head
- WBarcelona 2-0 Real Madrid
- LReal Madrid 2-1 Barcelona
How this prediction was made
This is a statistical forecast, not a guarantee. It comes from a goals model fitted on 7,122 recent results across Europe's top leagues, weighting recent matches more heavily. Picks freeze at kick-off and are graded in our public track record. Read the full methodology.