Excelsior vs FC Groningen prediction
Sunday 11 October 2026, 15:45, Stadion Woudestein
Full time: 1-5
Our prediction
The model gives Excelsior a 45% chance of winning, 27% for a draw and 29% for FC Groningen. Expected goals: Excelsior 1.6, FC Groningen 1.2. Most likely score: 1-1.
EXC45%Draw27%GRO29%
Predictions by market
Match result (1X2)Home45%✗Fair odds 2.22Double chanceEither team73%✓Fair odds 1.36Over/Under 2.5 goalsOver 2.554%✓Fair odds 1.87Over/Under 1.5 goalsOver 1.578%✓Fair odds 1.28Both teams to scoreYes57%✓Fair odds 1.75Correct score1-113%✗Fair odds 7.95Draw no betHome61%✗Fair odds 1.63Asian handicapAway +0.555%✓Fair odds 1.82Odd/Even goalsEven52%✓Fair odds 1.92First team to scoreHome53%✗Fair odds 1.90Win to nilHome22%✗Fair odds 4.46
Goals
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% |
|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% |
| Both teams score | 57% |
Most likely scores
- 1-112.6%
- 2-19.3%
- 1-08.6%
- 2-07.6%
- 1-27.2%
Recent form
Excelsior
- DAjax Amsterdam 2-2 Excelsior
- LExcelsior 1-2 FC Utrecht
- DNEC Nijmegen 2-2 Excelsior
- WWillem II 0-3 Excelsior
- WExcelsior 2-1 Sparta Rotterdam
FC Groningen
- WFC Groningen 3-0 PEC Zwolle
- DGo Ahead Eagles 1-1 FC Groningen
- DFC Groningen 2-2 FC Twente
- LFC Groningen 2-3 Fortuna Sittard
- LPSV Eindhoven 5-1 FC Groningen
Head to head
- WFC Groningen 2-3 Excelsior
- LExcelsior 0-2 FC Groningen
How this prediction was made
This is a statistical forecast, not a guarantee. It comes from a goals model fitted on 7,122 recent results across Europe's top leagues, weighting recent matches more heavily. Picks freeze at kick-off and are graded in our public track record. Read the full methodology.