FC Porto vs Moreirense prediction
Friday 4 September 2026, 20:15, Estádio do Dragão
Full time: 2-1
Our prediction
The model gives FC Porto a 76% chance of winning, 18% for a draw and 6% for Moreirense. Expected goals: FC Porto 2.2, Moreirense 0.5. Most likely score: 2-0.
FCP76%Draw18%MFC6%
Predictions by market
Match result (1X2)Home76%✓Fair odds 1.32Double chanceHome or draw94%✓Fair odds 1.07Over/Under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.551%✗Fair odds 1.98Over/Under 1.5 goalsOver 1.575%✓Fair odds 1.34Both teams to scoreNo66%✗Fair odds 1.53Correct score2-017%✗Fair odds 6.02Draw no betHome92%✓Fair odds 1.08Asian handicapHome -0.576%✓Fair odds 1.32Odd/Even goalsEven51%✗Fair odds 1.94First team to scoreHome76%✗Fair odds 1.32Win to nilHome54%✗Fair odds 1.85
Goals
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% |
|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% |
| Both teams score | 34% |
Most likely scores
- 2-016.6%
- 1-014.7%
- 3-012%
- 2-18%
- 1-18%
Recent form
FC Porto
- WAcadémico de Viseu 0-3 FC Porto
- WFC Porto 2-0 Arouca
- WRio Ave 0-2 FC Porto
- WFC Porto 2-0 Alverca
- WFC Porto 1-0 Santa Clara
Moreirense
- WCasa Pia 0-1 Moreirense
- LArouca 4-0 Moreirense
- DMoreirense 2-2 Braga
- DMoreirense 0-0 AVS
- LTondela 2-0 Moreirense
Head to head
- WFC Porto 3-0 Moreirense
- WMoreirense 1-2 FC Porto
How this prediction was made
This is a statistical forecast, not a guarantee. It comes from a goals model fitted on 7,081 recent results across Europe's top leagues, weighting recent matches more heavily. Picks freeze at kick-off and are graded in our public track record. Read the full methodology.