Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar prediction
Sunday 6 September 2026, 13:30, Abe Lenstra Stadion
Full time: 2-3
Our prediction
The model gives Heerenveen a 35% chance of winning, 26% for a draw and 39% for AZ Alkmaar. Expected goals: Heerenveen 1.5, AZ Alkmaar 1.6. Most likely score: 1-1.
HEE35%Draw26%AZ39%
Predictions by market
Match result (1X2)Away39%✓Fair odds 2.54Double chanceEither team74%✓Fair odds 1.34Over/Under 2.5 goalsOver 2.560%✓Fair odds 1.68Over/Under 1.5 goalsOver 1.582%✓Fair odds 1.22Both teams to scoreYes63%✓Fair odds 1.60Correct score1-112%✗Fair odds 8.51Draw no betAway53%✓Fair odds 1.89Asian handicapHome +0.561%✗Fair odds 1.65Odd/Even goalsEven52%✗Fair odds 1.93First team to scoreAway49%✓Fair odds 2.05Win to nilAway17%✗Fair odds 5.85
Goals
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% |
|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% |
| Both teams score | 63% |
Most likely scores
- 1-111.8%
- 1-28.7%
- 2-18.1%
- 2-26.5%
- 0-16.4%
Recent form
Heerenveen
- DWillem II 2-2 Heerenveen
- LHeerenveen 0-2 PEC Zwolle
- DAjax Amsterdam 2-2 Heerenveen
- WHeerenveen 1-0 FC Twente
- LFC Utrecht 3-2 Heerenveen
AZ Alkmaar
- WAZ Alkmaar 5-2 Go Ahead Eagles
- WFortuna Sittard 0-2 AZ Alkmaar
- WFC Utrecht 1-4 AZ Alkmaar
- WAZ Alkmaar 2-0 ADO Den Haag
- DAZ Alkmaar 3-3 NAC Breda
Head to head
- LAZ Alkmaar 3-0 Heerenveen
- WHeerenveen 3-1 AZ Alkmaar
How this prediction was made
This is a statistical forecast, not a guarantee. It comes from a goals model fitted on 7,122 recent results across Europe's top leagues, weighting recent matches more heavily. Picks freeze at kick-off and are graded in our public track record. Read the full methodology.