Heerenveen vs Excelsior prediction
Friday 16 October 2026, 19:00, Abe Lenstra Stadion
Full time: 4-0
Our prediction
The model gives Heerenveen a 47% chance of winning, 25% for a draw and 28% for Excelsior. Expected goals: Heerenveen 1.7, Excelsior 1.3. Most likely score: 1-1.
HEE47%Draw25%EXC28%
Predictions by market
Match result (1X2)Home47%✓Fair odds 2.13Double chanceEither team75%✓Fair odds 1.34Over/Under 2.5 goalsOver 2.558%✓Fair odds 1.74Over/Under 1.5 goalsOver 1.581%✓Fair odds 1.24Both teams to scoreYes60%✗Fair odds 1.67Correct score1-112%✗Fair odds 8.43Draw no betHome63%✓Fair odds 1.59Asian handicapAway +1.574%✗Fair odds 1.34Odd/Even goalsEven52%✓Fair odds 1.93First team to scoreHome54%✓Fair odds 1.85Win to nilHome22%✓Fair odds 4.54
Goals
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% |
|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% |
| Both teams score | 60% |
Most likely scores
- 1-111.9%
- 2-19.4%
- 1-07.7%
- 2-07.4%
- 1-27%
Recent form
Heerenveen
- LPSV Eindhoven 2-0 Heerenveen
- WSparta Rotterdam 0-4 Heerenveen
- DHeerenveen 0-0 Telstar
- LHeerenveen 2-3 AZ Alkmaar
- DWillem II 2-2 Heerenveen
Excelsior
- LExcelsior 1-5 FC Groningen
- DAjax Amsterdam 2-2 Excelsior
- LExcelsior 1-2 FC Utrecht
- DNEC Nijmegen 2-2 Excelsior
- WWillem II 0-3 Excelsior
Head to head
- WExcelsior 1-2 Heerenveen
- WHeerenveen 2-1 Excelsior
How this prediction was made
This is a statistical forecast, not a guarantee. It comes from a goals model fitted on 7,081 recent results across Europe's top leagues, weighting recent matches more heavily. Picks freeze at kick-off and are graded in our public track record. Read the full methodology.