Málaga vs Villarreal prediction
Thursday 17 September 2026, 20:30, La Rosaleda
Full time: 1-3
Our prediction
The model gives Málaga a 25% chance of winning, 28% for a draw and 46% for Villarreal. Expected goals: Málaga 1.0, Villarreal 1.4. Most likely score: 1-1.
MCF25%Draw28%VIL46%
Predictions by market
Match result (1X2)Away46%✓Fair odds 2.17Double chanceAway or draw75%✓Fair odds 1.34Over/Under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.555%✗Fair odds 1.80Over/Under 1.5 goalsOver 1.571%✓Fair odds 1.40Both teams to scoreNo50%✗Fair odds 1.99Correct score1-114%✗Fair odds 7.40Draw no betAway65%✓Fair odds 1.55Asian handicapHome +1.577%✗Fair odds 1.30Odd/Even goalsEven52%✓Fair odds 1.91First team to scoreAway53%✗Fair odds 1.88Win to nilAway27%✗Fair odds 3.73
Goals
| Over 1.5 goals | 71% |
|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% |
| Both teams score | 50% |
Most likely scores
- 1-113.5%
- 0-111.4%
- 0-09.6%
- 1-29.1%
- 0-29%
Recent form
Málaga
- DCelta Vigo 1-1 Málaga
- DMálaga 0-0 Levante
- LReal Madrid 4-0 Málaga
- DMálaga 1-1 Deportivo
- LAtlético Madrid 2-0 Málaga
Villarreal
- LVillarreal 1-2 Real Betis
- LBorussia Dortmund 3-2 Villarreal
- LVillarreal 2-3 Deportivo
- LAlavés 1-0 Villarreal
- DAtlético Madrid 2-2 Villarreal
How this prediction was made
This is a statistical forecast, not a guarantee. It comes from a goals model fitted on 7,081 recent results across Europe's top leagues, weighting recent matches more heavily. Picks freeze at kick-off and are graded in our public track record. Read the full methodology.