Manchester City vs Paris Saint-Germain prediction
Wednesday 14 October 2026, 20:00, Etihad Stadium
Full time: 2-4
Our prediction
The model gives Manchester City a 51% chance of winning, 24% for a draw and 24% for Paris Saint-Germain. Expected goals: Manchester City 1.8, Paris Saint-Germain 1.2. Most likely score: 1-1.
MNC51%Draw24%PSG24%
Predictions by market
Match result (1X2)Home51%✗Fair odds 1.95Double chanceHome or draw76%✗Fair odds 1.32Over/Under 2.5 goalsOver 2.559%✓Fair odds 1.70Over/Under 1.5 goalsOver 1.582%✓Fair odds 1.22Both teams to scoreYes60%✓Fair odds 1.67Correct score1-111%✗Fair odds 8.80Draw no betHome68%✗Fair odds 1.47Asian handicapAway +1.571%✓Fair odds 1.42Odd/Even goalsEven52%✓Fair odds 1.93First team to scoreHome57%✗Fair odds 1.75Win to nilHome24%✗Fair odds 4.13
Goals
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% |
|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% |
| Both teams score | 60% |
Most likely scores
- 1-111.4%
- 2-19.7%
- 2-08%
- 1-07.8%
- 1-26.4%
Recent form
Manchester City
- WLiverpool 0-3 Manchester City
- WManchester City 5-3 Sunderland
- WManchester United 0-1 Manchester City
- WFC Porto 0-2 Manchester City
- WManchester City 1-0 Coventry City
Paris Saint-Germain
- WParis Saint-Germain 3-1 Le Mans
- WMarseille 1-2 Paris Saint-Germain
- WBrest 0-1 Paris Saint-Germain
- WParis Saint-Germain 6-1 Slovan Bratislava
- LParis Saint-Germain 1-2 AS Monaco
How this prediction was made
This is a statistical forecast, not a guarantee. It comes from a goals model fitted on 7,081 recent results across Europe's top leagues, weighting recent matches more heavily. Picks freeze at kick-off and are graded in our public track record. Read the full methodology.