Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano prediction
Saturday 12 September 2026, 20:00, Santiago Bernabéu
Full time: 4-1
Our prediction
The model gives Real Madrid a 70% chance of winning, 19% for a draw and 11% for Rayo Vallecano. Expected goals: Real Madrid 2.3, Rayo Vallecano 0.8. Most likely score: 2-0.
RMA70%Draw19%RAY11%
Predictions by market
Match result (1X2)Home70%✓Fair odds 1.43Double chanceHome or draw89%✓Fair odds 1.13Over/Under 2.5 goalsOver 2.561%✓Fair odds 1.65Over/Under 1.5 goalsOver 1.583%✓Fair odds 1.21Both teams to scoreYes51%✓Fair odds 1.94Correct score2-012%✗Fair odds 8.66Draw no betHome86%✓Fair odds 1.16Asian handicapHome -0.570%✓Fair odds 1.43Odd/Even goalsEven51%✗Fair odds 1.94First team to scoreHome70%✓Fair odds 1.43Win to nilHome39%✗Fair odds 2.59
Goals
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% |
|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% |
| Both teams score | 51% |
Most likely scores
- 2-011.6%
- 2-19.6%
- 1-09.4%
- 1-19%
- 3-08.9%
Recent form
Real Madrid
- WReal Madrid 2-1 Internazionale
- LReal Betis 1-0 Real Madrid
- WReal Madrid 4-0 Málaga
- WReal Madrid 4-1 Real Sociedad
- WEspanyol 1-2 Real Madrid
Rayo Vallecano
- WRayo Vallecano 3-2 Racing Santander
- LBarcelona 5-2 Rayo Vallecano
- DRayo Vallecano 1-1 Alavés
- LSevilla 2-1 Rayo Vallecano
- WAlavés 1-2 Rayo Vallecano
Head to head
- WReal Madrid 2-1 Rayo Vallecano
- DRayo Vallecano 0-0 Real Madrid
How this prediction was made
This is a statistical forecast, not a guarantee. It comes from a goals model fitted on 7,122 recent results across Europe's top leagues, weighting recent matches more heavily. Picks freeze at kick-off and are graded in our public track record. Read the full methodology.