Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig prediction
Wednesday 21 October 2026, 20:00, Santiago Bernabéu
Full time: 4-1
Our prediction
The model gives Real Madrid a 65% chance of winning, 19% for a draw and 16% for RB Leipzig. Expected goals: Real Madrid 2.5, RB Leipzig 1.2. Most likely score: 2-1.
RMA65%Draw19%RBL16%
Predictions by market
Match result (1X2)Home65%✓Fair odds 1.55Double chanceHome or draw84%✓Fair odds 1.20Over/Under 2.5 goalsOver 2.572%✓Fair odds 1.40Over/Under 1.5 goalsOver 1.589%✓Fair odds 1.12Both teams to scoreYes65%✓Fair odds 1.54Correct score2-19%✗Fair odds 10.79Draw no betHome80%✓Fair odds 1.25Asian handicapHome -0.565%✓Fair odds 1.55Odd/Even goalsEven51%✗Fair odds 1.95First team to scoreHome65%✓Fair odds 1.54Win to nilHome27%✗Fair odds 3.77
Goals
| Over 1.5 goals | 89% |
|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 72% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 51% |
| Both teams score | 65% |
Most likely scores
- 2-19.3%
- 1-18.1%
- 3-17.7%
- 2-07.6%
- 3-06.3%
Recent form
Real Madrid
- WReal Madrid 4-1 Sevilla
- WAS Roma 3-4 Real Madrid
- WReal Madrid 1-0 Villarreal
- LAtlético Madrid 2-1 Real Madrid
- WElche 2-3 Real Madrid
RB Leipzig
- LBayern Munich 6-1 RB Leipzig
- WRB Leipzig 1-0 PSV Eindhoven
- WRB Leipzig 6-0 Eintracht Frankfurt
- LBayer Leverkusen 2-0 RB Leipzig
- WRB Leipzig 5-0 Hamburg SV
How this prediction was made
This is a statistical forecast, not a guarantee. It comes from a goals model fitted on 7,081 recent results across Europe's top leagues, weighting recent matches more heavily. Picks freeze at kick-off and are graded in our public track record. Read the full methodology.