Real Madrid vs Sevilla prediction
Sunday 18 October 2026, 20:00, Santiago Bernabéu
Full time: 4-1
Our prediction
The model gives Real Madrid a 72% chance of winning, 18% for a draw and 10% for Sevilla. Expected goals: Real Madrid 2.4, Sevilla 0.8. Most likely score: 2-0.
RMA72%Draw18%SEV10%
Predictions by market
Match result (1X2)Home72%✓Fair odds 1.40Double chanceHome or draw90%✓Fair odds 1.11Over/Under 2.5 goalsOver 2.561%✓Fair odds 1.63Over/Under 1.5 goalsOver 1.583%✓Fair odds 1.20Both teams to scoreYes51%✓Fair odds 1.98Correct score2-012%✗Fair odds 8.49Draw no betHome87%✓Fair odds 1.14Asian handicapHome -0.572%✓Fair odds 1.40Odd/Even goalsEven51%✗Fair odds 1.95First team to scoreHome71%✓Fair odds 1.41Win to nilHome40%✗Fair odds 2.50
Goals
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% |
|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% |
| Both teams score | 51% |
Most likely scores
- 2-011.8%
- 2-19.4%
- 1-09.3%
- 3-09.3%
- 1-18.6%
Recent form
Real Madrid
- WAS Roma 3-4 Real Madrid
- WReal Madrid 1-0 Villarreal
- LAtlético Madrid 2-1 Real Madrid
- WElche 2-3 Real Madrid
- WReal Madrid 4-1 Rayo Vallecano
Sevilla
- DLevante 3-3 Sevilla
- LSevilla 1-3 Barcelona
- WDeportivo 0-1 Sevilla
- WSevilla 1-0 Valencia
- DEspanyol 1-1 Sevilla
Head to head
- WSevilla 0-1 Real Madrid
- WReal Madrid 2-0 Sevilla
How this prediction was made
This is a statistical forecast, not a guarantee. It comes from a goals model fitted on 7,081 recent results across Europe's top leagues, weighting recent matches more heavily. Picks freeze at kick-off and are graded in our public track record. Read the full methodology.