Real Madrid vs Villarreal prediction
Saturday 10 October 2026, 20:00, Santiago Bernabéu
Full time: 1-0
Our prediction
The model gives Real Madrid a 68% chance of winning, 18% for a draw and 14% for Villarreal. Expected goals: Real Madrid 2.6, Villarreal 1.1. Most likely score: 2-1.
RMA68%Draw18%VIL14%
Predictions by market
Match result (1X2)Home68%✓Fair odds 1.47Double chanceHome or draw86%✓Fair odds 1.16Over/Under 2.5 goalsOver 2.572%✗Fair odds 1.38Over/Under 1.5 goalsOver 1.589%✗Fair odds 1.12Both teams to scoreYes64%✗Fair odds 1.57Correct score2-19%✗Fair odds 10.94Draw no betHome83%✓Fair odds 1.21Asian handicapHome -0.568%✓Fair odds 1.47Odd/Even goalsEven51%✗Fair odds 1.96First team to scoreHome67%✓Fair odds 1.48Win to nilHome29%✓Fair odds 3.45
Goals
| Over 1.5 goals | 89% |
|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 72% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 52% |
| Both teams score | 64% |
Most likely scores
- 2-19.1%
- 2-08%
- 3-17.9%
- 1-17.6%
- 3-07%
Recent form
Real Madrid
- LAtlético Madrid 2-1 Real Madrid
- WElche 2-3 Real Madrid
- WReal Madrid 4-1 Rayo Vallecano
- WReal Madrid 2-1 Internazionale
- LReal Betis 1-0 Real Madrid
Villarreal
- WVillarreal 3-1 Levante
- WMálaga 1-3 Villarreal
- LVillarreal 1-2 Real Betis
- LBorussia Dortmund 3-2 Villarreal
- LVillarreal 2-3 Deportivo
Head to head
- WVillarreal 0-2 Real Madrid
- WReal Madrid 3-1 Villarreal
How this prediction was made
This is a statistical forecast, not a guarantee. It comes from a goals model fitted on 7,122 recent results across Europe's top leagues, weighting recent matches more heavily. Picks freeze at kick-off and are graded in our public track record. Read the full methodology.