Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax Amsterdam prediction
Sunday 25 October 2026, 16:45, Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel
Full time: 1-2
Our prediction
The model gives Sparta Rotterdam a 20% chance of winning, 21% for a draw and 58% for Ajax Amsterdam. Expected goals: Sparta Rotterdam 1.3, Ajax Amsterdam 2.2. Most likely score: 1-2.
SPA20%Draw21%AJA58%
Predictions by market
Match result (1X2)Away58%✓Fair odds 1.71Double chanceAway or draw80%✓Fair odds 1.26Over/Under 2.5 goalsOver 2.568%✓Fair odds 1.46Over/Under 1.5 goalsOver 1.587%✓Fair odds 1.15Both teams to scoreYes65%✓Fair odds 1.53Correct score1-210%✓Fair odds 10.52Draw no betAway74%✓Fair odds 1.35Asian handicapAway -0.558%✓Fair odds 1.71Odd/Even goalsEven51%✗Fair odds 1.95First team to scoreAway61%✓Fair odds 1.63Win to nilAway24%✗Fair odds 4.13
Goals
| Over 1.5 goals | 87% |
|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 47% |
| Both teams score | 65% |
Most likely scores
- 1-29.5%
- 1-19.2%
- 0-27.4%
- 1-37.1%
- 2-26.1%
Recent form
Sparta Rotterdam
- WSparta Rotterdam 3-2 Willem II
- DGo Ahead Eagles 3-3 Sparta Rotterdam
- LSparta Rotterdam 0-4 Heerenveen
- LPSV Eindhoven 4-1 Sparta Rotterdam
- DSparta Rotterdam 2-2 PEC Zwolle
Ajax Amsterdam
- WFC Groningen 2-5 Ajax Amsterdam
- DAjax Amsterdam 1-1 NEC Nijmegen
- DAjax Amsterdam 2-2 Excelsior
- WAjax Amsterdam 5-1 Willem II
- WFortuna Sittard 1-5 Ajax Amsterdam
Head to head
- LAjax Amsterdam 4-0 Sparta Rotterdam
- DSparta Rotterdam 3-3 Ajax Amsterdam
How this prediction was made
This is a statistical forecast, not a guarantee. It comes from a goals model fitted on 7,122 recent results across Europe's top leagues, weighting recent matches more heavily. Picks freeze at kick-off and are graded in our public track record. Read the full methodology.